Newport v Man United Bet Builder Tips
Man United -2
Over 3.5 Goals
Bruno Fernandes to Score
Over 11.5 Corners
Over 3.5 Cards
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Newport County v Man United
FA Cup match at Rodney Parade, Newport
TV: BBC One, 4:30pm
Manchester United aren’t having much luck with their FA Cup draws this season. After overcoming the mighty Wigan Athletic of League One in the last round, Erik ten Hag’s side must now travel to face Newport County. They’re the fourth-best side in Wales while United are only eighth in the English top flight, so it’s a tricky match in store for the Red Devils.
But seriously. Newport start the weekend 14th in League Two and may have dropped a place or two by the time this match kicks off. While they might be on the joint-longest unbeaten run in the division and have not lost any of their last seven matches in all competitions, the question is not whether United will win but rather what their margin of victory will be.
Man Utd -2
The teams have never met before and it’s hard to get a read on how they might perform in these circumstances. Newport have been in League Two since they were promoted from the Conference in 2013. They hosted Tottenham at this stage in 2018, holding them to a 1-1 draw before losing a replay.
Manchester City won 4-1 at Rodney Parade in the FA Cup and West Ham 2-0 there in the Carabao Cup in 2019, while Brentford needed penalties to win in south Wales earlier this season. Newport have generally avoided embarrassment against Premier League opposition, although Southampton did win 8-0 on their patch in 2021.
United’s most recent away tie against a League Two team occurred in 2020, Ole Gunnar Solksjaer’s side winning 6-0 at Tranmere with goals from six different scorers. The Red Devils won 4-0 at Yeovil two years earlier, so it’s not unreasonable to think they can win by three goals to overcome a -2 Handicap.
Over 3.5 Goals
If you’re a League Two fan and you like goals (and who isn’t/doesn’t?), get thee to a Newport County match. Their games have averaged 4.15 goals this season, with 10 of their 27 games seeing at least five.
There’s action at both ends too. The Exiles have failed to score just three times in 2023/24 but only six teams in their division have kept fewer clean sheets. While United’s league games have been far less entertaining, they were gloriously chaotic in Europe and where do you think Wales is? We should be set for a cracker and Over 3.5 Goals.
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Bruno Fernandes to Score
United haven’t had a game for two weeks so although they play at Wolves on Thursday, there’s no massive need for ten Hag to pick a weakened team. He didn’t in the previous round either, with a front four of Alejandro Garnacho, Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford, and Rasmus Hojlund taking on Wigan.
With Anthony Martial ruled out for around 10 weeks, those four should all feature once again. Any of them would make a sensible enough choice here but Fernandes looks the best value option.
The Portuguese midfielder is the fourth favourite in the goal scorer markets at the time of writing but plays virtually every game and takes the penalties, scoring from the spot in the previous round. As Newport have conceded 10 penalties, the most in League Two, Fernandes can be an anytime goal scorer here.
Over 11.5 Corners
As well as the obvious financial disparity, these teams are at opposite ends of the far less important corners spectrum too. United are top of the Premier League for them this season, with their games averaging 12.8, almost three more than Newport have seen in their League Two matches.
There were 14 when the Red Devils played Wigan, so it’s reasonable to expect Over 11.5 Corners in this contest.
Over 3.5 Cards
Newport are one of League Two’s better-behaved sides. Only five teams have been shown fewer yellow cards and they have only received a single red in 2023/24. They know how to draw them from their opponents, though, with three of the last four visiting teams at Rodney Parade having had a man sent off.
Referee David Coote is unlikely to be forgiving of any robust challenges. Among the top 10 most experienced whistlers in the Premier League, he averages the most cards per game and has averaged 4.2 yellow cards per match over the last three seasons.
That’s about the same mark as United have seen in the league in 2023/24 (4.5). Their trip to Wigan in the previous round was cardless, but the combination of their record and Coote’s should see Over 3.5 Cards.
Newport v Man United Betting Tips
Man United -2
Over 3.5 Goals
Bruno Fernandes to Score
Over 11.5 Corners
Over 3.5 Cards
- A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 29/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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