Football Tips: Saturday’s 25/1 Newcastle v Man City Bet Builder

Footie tipster Andrew Beasley looks forward to the North East's Middle East Derby.

Newcastle v Man City Bet Builder tips, Premier League, Saturday 13th January 2024

By / Football Tips / 4 months ago

Newcastle v Man City Bet Builder

Manchester City to Win
Both Teams to Score
Julian Alvarez to Score
Over 10.5 Corners
Over 4.5 Cards

    Newcastle v Man City
    Premier League match at St James’ Park, Newcastle, 5:30pm
    TV: TNT Sports

    The evening match in the Premier League this Saturday takes us to the Middle East for a derby between Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates.

    Or at least, that’s how the match at St James’ Park between Newcastle and Manchester City will be viewed by some people. Get your half ‘n’ half scarves outside the ground but take care when you put them in the (sports) wash.

    The recent record of both teams suggests an away win is inevitable. The Magpies are rock bottom of the Premier League six-game form table and their only two victories in their last nine matches in all competitions were either against 10-man teams or Championship opposition. Can Newcastle upset Paddy Power’s odds?

    Man City to Win

    The expected goal data for the season suggests there could be some value in backing a home win. Newcastle also won the previous meeting 1-0, in the Carabao Cup last September, and the sides drew 3-3 in the corresponding fixture last season.

    The problem for Eddie Howe is that the xG also suggests that the game last year was more like a 2-4 score line on chances, with Newcastle mustering no more than 0.5 expected goals in six of their last nine league meetings with City. Granted, only one of those blunt matches was on home turf but some of the pre-match trivia suggests the home side will be lucky to even get on the scoresheet here.

    In the Premier League era, City have won more games, scored more goals, and kept more clean sheets against Newcastle than they have against any other team, with the Magpies winning just once in the last 32 league meetings.

    With Kevin De Bruyne returning from injury and Erling Haaland reportedly not far behind, it’s looking ominous for the competition at the top of the table. With Liverpool not playing until next Sunday, City will close the gap at the top to two points with a win in this match.

        Both Teams to Score

        While the above facts look damning for Newcastle’s hopes, there’s reason to think they can get on the score sheet. City have kept clean sheets in just two of their 10 away league matches this season, and they were against terrible teams (Burnley and Manchester United).

        Newcastle have also scored in all 10 home games this season and only Liverpool has amassed more expected goals on their own patch. That’s partly because the Reds set a new Premier League xG record against the Magpies last time out – another reason why City should win – but as Howe’s boys lead the division for Opta-defined big chances in home games in 2023/24, both teams will score.

        Julian Alvarez to Score

        Manchester City’s last five goals against Newcastle – and the last seven at St James’ Park – have all been scored by different players.

        In the absence of Haaland, the goals have been shared around in the Cityzens’ most recent matches too. The one consistent threat has been Julian Alvarez, who has played as a forward (rather than as an attacking midfielder as he had been) while the Norwegian has been on the sidelines.

        Alvarez has five goals and an assist in his last four matches and got the winner in August when these sides last clashed in the league. He can bag another goal to help City to a win.

        Over 10.5 Corners

        There were only three corners when City beat Newcastle at the Etihad in the previous league meeting but other recent games between them have been remarkably consistent – there were nine or 10 corners in seven of the eight preceding clashes.

        With the Magpies’ home games having averaged 10.3 corners and City’s away games averaging 10.6 this term, we can expect this game to be around that mark. As the highest totals for Pep Guardiola’s side on the road occurred at West Ham and Manchester United, two sides close to Newcastle in the table, let’s take Over 10.5 corners for this one.

        Over 4.5 Cards

        The last three league meetings of these teams all saw exactly six yellow cards, with Newcastle collecting at least four every time.

        Both clubs have seen an average of around five in their respective league matches in 2023/24, and it’s also worth noting there have already been three red cards at St James’ Park this season (all for away players).

        Referee Chris Kavanagh is unlikely to keep his cards in his pocket. He oversaw the previously mentioned clash in the Carabao Cup, making four bookings, and his last game was Nottingham Forest’s 3-1 win at Newcastle, in which he showed three yellow cards to both teams. As such, there should be over 4.5 cards here to finish up our Bet Builder nicely.

        Newcastle v Man City Bet Builder

        Manchester City to Win
        Both teams to Score
        Julian Alvarez to Score
        Over 10.5 Corners
        Over 4.5 Cards

        All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

        MORE FOOTBALL TIPS

        READ MORE

        The latest football odds are on PaddyPower.com now

        THE PADDY POWER GUIDE TO SAFER GAMBLING – EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW

        What do you think?