Sunderland v Newcastle Betting Tips
Newcastle to Win
Under 2.5 Goals
Over 4.5 Cards
Luke O’Nien to be Shown a Card
Under 10.5 Corners
- A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 22/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Sunderland v Newcastle
FA Cup third-round: Stadium of Light
Saturday, January 6 – 12:45pm
TV: ITV
Is it lucky or unlucky to have a black cat cross your path? Either way, Eddie Howe must be wondering what he’s done to deserve this cup draw.
After starting December with a thoroughly dominant win over Manchester United, Newcastle have since won just one of their eight matches, losing the rest, and that victory came when Fulham were reduced to 10 men in the 22nd minute. This run has seen them go out of the Champions League and Carabao Cup, and they are now sixth in the market for a top-four finish (at 15/2).
The Magpies are also sixth favourites to win the 2023/24 FA Cup, at 10/1, and the competition represents their final opportunity this season to end a trophy drought which stretches back to the 1960s.
As such, Howe would’ve loved a nice easy home tie in Round Three. But while his club’s owners might have similar money to those at Manchester City, they don’t have the same ‘luck’ with cup draws.
A derby defeat here against arch-local rivals Sunderland and the Newcastle manager might start fearing the chop.
Newcastle to Win
The Magpies don’t have a good recent record in this fixture, albeit the last meeting was in 2016 and a lot has changed for both clubs since then, Sunderland had to endure a four-season stay in League One and Newcastle has since won the ownership lottery (at least in financial terms).
Sunderland are unbeaten in nine meetings since 2011, won six of the subsequent matches and have conceded just one goal across the last five Tyne-Wear derbies.
While the Black Cats will be delighted to host an out-of-form Newcastle, they too have been erratic in the last month or so. In their last 10 matches, Sunderland have four wins but also the same number of defeats.
And with five losses at home already this season, including defeats to nil against Coventry, Cardiff and Middlesbrough, Newcastle should have too much for their bitter rivals. Win here and it could set the Magpies in flight for 2024.
Under 2.5 Goals
If there is one thing in the home side’s favour, it’s that they have been decent defensively this season. Only three teams in the Championship have conceded fewer goals in 2023/24, and they are all in the top five in the table.
This isn’t a derby which has tended to generate many goals either. Just two of the last six clashes at Sunderland saw at least three (and no more than that), with both teams scoring in only three of the games.
With Newcastle grabbing more than a single goal at most in just two of their previous 10 games, they are unlikely to win at a canter. Under 2.5 Goals looks to be the order of the day.
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Over 4.5 Cards
We should be safe for a few cards, though, which is par for the course in a white-hot derby. Sunderland won’t be pleased to see Craig Pawson refereeing this match, as they’ve won just once from their 13 previous games when he has been in charge.
Pawson also showed an average of 4.4 yellow cards in those matches. Above his personal rate that might be, but he has been flashing 4.1 yellows per Premier League game since start of 2021/22.
The Black Cats’ Championship matches have been averaging 4.8 – the second most in the second tier – and Newcastle’s league games have seen 5.1. With these numbers baked under derby heat, we should see Over 4.5 Cards here.
Three of the last five Tyne-Wear derbies at the Stadium of Light have seen a red card too, just so you know, and it’s 9/4 for there to be one here if that takes your fancy.
Luke O’Nien to be Shown a Card
One of the players most likely to be booked by referee Pawson is Sunderland centre-back Luke O’Nien. He has been shown eight yellow cards in the Championship this season, meaning only five players across the division have been booked more often.
His defensive partner Dan Ballard has also collected eight bookings, so is also a good shout in the Shown A Card market. However, O’Nien commits slightly more fouls per game on average and being on the right of the defence he is likely to be up against everyone’s favourite diver, Anthony Gordon.
Pray for O’Nien. Card incoming.
Under 10.5 Corners
The records of these teams suggest there won’t be many corners in this match and this is particularly true for Newcastle. Just three of their 10 away matches in the Premier League have paid out on over 10.5 corners and half of them didn’t even breach the 8.5 marker if you wish to aim even lower.
As Sunderland’s Championship games average 10.9 it would be wise not to go crazy, so just take Under 10.5 Corners and hope the Newcastle defence holds firm.
Sunderland v Newcastle Bet Builder Tips
Newcastle to Win
Under 2.5 Goals
Over 4.5 Cards
Luke O’Nien to be Shown a Card
Under 10.5 Corners
- A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 22/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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