Football Tips: Chris Wood to Star in Our 38/1 Nottingham Forest v Man United Bet Builder

The ‘European cup winning clubs who aren’t as good as they once were and have managers with three names’ derby.

By / Football Tips, Premier League / 1 year ago

Nottingham Forest v Man United Bet Builder Tips

Double Chance: Nottm Forest And Draw
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Under
Anytime Goalscorer: Chris Wood
Over/Under 10.5 Corners: Over
Over/Under 3.5 Cards: Over

    Sat, December 30th – 5:30pm: Nottingham Forest v Man United
    Premier League match at the City Ground, Nottingham.
    TV: Sky Sports

    The early evening game on Saturday delivers everybody’s favourite derby: the ‘European cup winning clubs who aren’t as good as they once were and have managers with three names’ derby. Nuno Espirito Santo’s Nottingham Forest welcome Erik Ten Hag’s Manchester United to the City Ground with both sides coming into the match off the back of unlikely but impressive wins.

    Forest were around 13/2 to win at Newcastle on Boxing Day so to do so after going a goal down was a serious result. United, meanwhile, had to come from two goals down to beat Aston Villa at Old Trafford. Both teams will be buzzing off those matches so what can we expect to happen here?

    Double Chance: Nottm Forest And Draw

    Paddy Power thinks the visitors will win and looking at the head-to-head record between the teams it’s easy to see why. Thanks to playing out a League Cup semi-final, these teams have met five times since last Christmas and United have won every time. The four meetings last season ended with an aggregate score of 10-0 in their favour.

    However, the clash in August played out like the Red Devils recent Villa victory and may be more pertinent here. Forest were 2-0 up inside four minutes, but lost after Joe Worrall was sent off and United were later awarded a penalty. If the home side find themselves in a similar position here, Nuno won’t let them play with a high line like Villa did on Tuesday, allowing ten Hag’s boys back into the game. It will be a lockdown.

    While United have a decent record against struggling teams this season, they lost 1-0 to Crystal Palace and only won by that score line against Fulham, Luton and Burnley. Only at Everton have they won by more than a single goal this season, and that took a Goal of the Decade contender from Alejandro Garnacho to set them on their way.

    The underlying expected goal data says Forest should be favourites, but as a win remains a big ask when their record is so poor against United, take the Double Chance option instead.

    Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Under

    Both teams have seen Over 2.5 Goals pay out in 10 of their opening 19 league games this season. You might think that means there’s about a 50 per cent chance of seeing three-or-more goals here, yet they are below league average and only Crystal Palace have seen it occur fewer times in 2023/24.

    To emphasise how unlikely it is for there to be many goals here, both sides are also joint-bottom of the respective home and away standings as appropriate.  This fixture ended 0-2 last season, and though the League Cup clash at the City Ground went one goal better, the third came in the 89th minute. Under 2.5 Goals has to be the selection.

        Anytime Goalscorer: Chris Wood

        After Chris Wood smashed a hat-trick against former club Newcastle last time out, it might be worth considering if Anthony Elanga can repeat the trick of harming his previous employer here.  But Wood is the man in form, having scored four of Forest’s five goals since Nuno took over and assisting the other (for Elanga, by the way).

        In his career he has started against United and avoided defeat just twice. But he scored in the first instance and then got a goal and assist in a famous Burnley win at Old Trafford in 2020. Wood will need to contribute if Forest are to collect at least a point from the game, and his record suggests he can score any time here.

        Over/Under 10.5 Corners: Over

        This is a head-to-head which generates corners galore for some reason. The three league meetings since Forest were promoted all featured at least 13, while the League Cup clash in Nottingham saw 11 last January.  United are top of the league for total corners, and 14 of their 19 matches have paid out on over 10.5 corners, so this one should too.

        Over/Under 3.5 Cards: Over

        Referee Tim Robinson is relatively inexperienced at Premier League level but has averaged 4.1 yellow cards per match in the top flight, after giving out 3.6 per game in the Championship. He’s presumably trying to find the guy who did this foul, while wearing a hot dog suit.

        These teams are in the middle of the Premier League pack for cards per game this season, but in 2023/24 that means both still see an average of over four. There might not be eight yellows and a red like there was in their match at Old Trafford earlier this season but Over 3.5 Cards should be on the, um, cards.

        Nottingham Forest v Man United Bet Builder Tips

        Double Chance: Nottm Forest And Draw
        Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Under
        Anytime Goalscorer: Chris Wood
        Over/Under 10.5 Corners: Over
        Over/Under 3.5 Cards: Over

        All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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