Football Tips: Salah to score in this 22/1 Burnley v Liverpool Bet Builder

Our football tipster Andrew Beasley finds the value when the Clarets take on the Reds.

Burnley v liverpool Bet Builder betting tips, premier league, 26 december 2023

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Burnley v Liverpool Bet Builder Tips

Liverpool (-1)
Over 2.5 Goals
Mohamed Salah To Score Anytime
Over 11.5 Corners
Under 3.5 Cards

    Tuesday, December 26 – 5:30pm: Burnley v Liverpool
    Premier League match at Turf Moor, Burnley
    TV: Amazon Prime

    What’s the maximum number of games of Premier League football a person can watch in one day without losing their mind? We look set to find out on Boxing Day, with televised matches starting at 12:30, 3pm, 5:30pm and 8pm. Sink into the sofa and don’t hog all the good Celebrations, yeah?

    The early evening game takes us to Turf Moor and a clash between two clubs who will reach the half way point of 2023/24 after this match at opposite ends of the table. Despite an unexpected 2-0 win at Fulham on Saturday, Burnley are 19th in the table, could be bottom when this game kicks off and are odds-on with Paddy to be relegated.

    Liverpool, meanwhile, drew 1-1 with Arsenal last time out and are well placed for a tilt at the title. Is there any hope for a Boxing Day upset not involving a disgruntled partner having to watch too much football?

    Liverpool (-1)

    There isn’t if the recent history of this fixture is any guide. The Reds have been victorious on their last five visits to Burnley, winning the last three without conceding.

    Their previous defeat, in 2016, may have come to mind for some Liverpool supporters when their side huffed and puffed to a bore draw with Manchester United recently though. In both matches, Jurgen Klopp’s boys took far too many long-range, low-quality shots, and the game with the Red Devils highlighted a certain stodginess in attack for Liverpool 2.0.

    The problem for Burnley is that the side which beat the Reds seven years ago was playing its second game of the season after promotion and was led by Sean Dyche. The class of 2023/24 play a much more open game under Vincent Kompany and have suffered some relatively heavy beatings as a result.

    Their only home win was a handsome one, by five goals to nil, but that came against Sheffield United. Every other match at Turf Moor has been lost, with six of the eight visiting victors winning by at least two goals.

    And while Liverpool’s away record this season has been patchy, they have won on the road against Wolves, Crystal Palace and the Blades. Even when drawing at Luton, they amassed 2.6 expected goals and six big chances.

    Maybe Darwin Nunez fluffs his lines here too, it wouldn’t be a complete shock. It’s hard not to see The Reds winning by a two-goal margin and passing the Liverpool (-1) handicap though.

    Over 2.5 Goals

    All that said, Klopp’s crew may not run riot in this match. Only two of their away league games this season have featured more than three goals, for starters, and those fixtures only reached four.

    When winning 2-1 at Selhurst Park in their last away match, Liverpool’s decisive goal didn’t come until the 91st minute. They were held 1-0 at Bramall Lane until the 94th and were losing 1-0 at Luton until the 95th.

    In short, there’s every chance the visitors might score late but they won’t score loads. Three of the Reds’ previous five trips to Turf Moor saw exactly three goals, so picking Over 2.5 Goals rather than a real high scoring match feels right.

        Mohamed Salah To Score Anytime

        Another reason to expect a relatively low scoring game is that Klopp might risk fielding a slightly weakened team. With Newcastle up next on New Year’s Day, a match against a struggling side offers the chance for rotation.

        Mo Salah will play, though, because he usually does. He’s off to the Africa Cup of Nations soon, so Klopp will be less concerned about the Egyptian King being a little tired in January.

        By his own high standards, he has a poor record against Burnley, scoring just once in nine appearances. But again, Kompany’s boys should offer more opportunities than the Dychean low block used to, so Salah – who scored a fine strike on Saturday – should bag a Boxing Day goal.

        Over 11.5 Corners

        Games between Liverpool and the previous iteration of Burnley featured loads of corners. The previous six meetings all hit double figures and saw an average of 13.

        The current crop of Clarets might not have the shot blocking beats of their predecessors, but Turf Moor is near the top of the chart for home corners in the Premier League this season and Liverpool are riding high in the away column with 11.8 per game. As such, Over 11.5 Corners look likely.

        Under 3.5 Cards

        Klopp’s least favourite referee, Paul Tierney, takes charge of this match. While he hasn’t refereed Burnley since their promotion, traditionally he didn’t show many cards in their games, and his last three away matches for the Reds saw just five cards in total.

        If this game is a relative stroll for Liverpool as we suspect, there is unlikely to be too many bookings. Under 3.5 Cards should be a safe enough pick to round off our Boxing Day Bet Builder. Are there any Celebrations left?

        Burnley v Liverpool Betting Tips

        Liverpool (-1)
        Over 2.5 Goals
        Mohamed Salah To Score Anytime
        Over 11.5 Corners
        Under 3.5 Cards

        All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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