Football Tips: Isak on target in this 24/1 Spurs v Newcastle Bet Builder

Our football tipster Andrew Beasley finds five value picks for the Super Sunday showdown.

Spurs v Newcastle Bet Builder Betting Tips, Sunday 10th december 2023

By / Football Tips / 8 months ago

Spurs v Newcastle Bet Builder Tips

Newcastle to Win
Over 2.5 Goals
Alexander Isak to Score
Over 11.5 Corners
Over 4.5 Cards

    Spurs v Newcastle
    Premier League match at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
    Sunday, December 10th, 4:30pm
    TV: Sky Sports Main Event/Premier League

    Ange and Eddie sound like a lovely old couple in east London, don’t they? But this episode of the Eastenders Christmas special is moving north and is about to get ugly.

    Both Tottenham and Newcastle need a win here. The former more so than the latter, having scored first in the last five games and only earned a single point from them while Aston Villa have stolen a march in the battle for a top four finish.

    Paddy Power’s odds imply Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City are nailed on for three of the four places already, leaving Tottenham, Newcastle and Villa to scrap over the final berth. Remember when the Premier League had a big four and you couldn’t imagine Chelsea and Manchester United not being in it? It’s been a minute.

    Both Spurs and the Magpies have had three-game losing spells and long unbeaten streaks this season, and they were beaten by West Ham and Everton respectively on Thursday. What on earth is going to happen here?

    Newcastle to Win

    Paddy Power thinks Tottenham will prevail – home advantage always counts for something – though there isn’t much between the teams in the Match Odds.

    There was a lot between them on the pitch last season. The previous meeting saw Newcastle race into a 5-0 lead in the opening 21 minutes, with the match finishing 6-1. While that was at St James’ Park, Eddie Howe’s side won 2-1 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in October 2022, and the Magpies have two victories and a draw from their last four trips to this side of north London.

    Spurs have clearly improved from the dark days of Antonio Conte and Cristian Stellini but there’s two reasons to think there will be another away win in this fixture: 1) Newcastle are in better form recently, and 2) the expected goal data says the visitors should be favourites.

    If you rank the Premier League by xG difference per game, Tottenham sit 13th in the home table while the Magpies are 6th in the away standings. One distinct advantage for the home side is that they have fewer injuries and haven’t been playing European football this season.

    Newcastle delivered an error strewn, tired-looking performance at Goodison Park last time out and it’s a tight turnaround between that game and this. But with Tottenham terrible at holding leads – add your own dog walker joke here – and the prices on offer, we’re picking the Magpies to Win.

        Over 2.5 Goals

        While the seven goals in the last meeting of these teams was an extreme example, Tottenham and Newcastle usually deliver entertaining games. The last seven clashes have seen both sides score and five of those matches featured at least four goals too.

        According to Stats Zone, Premier League matches between these clubs see more goals per game (3.16) than any of the other 40 fixtures which have occurred at least 50 times in the competition. There’s one to share with your mates in the pub before the game, eh?

        Irrespective of who they’ve played in 2023/24, Tottenham’s matches have tended to feature several goals, with 11 of their 15 in the league seeing at least three. Two tired defences (and a back-up goalkeeper for Newcastle) should ensure we see Over 2.5 Goals on Super Sunday.

         

          Alexander Isak to Score

          Alexander Isak has scored twice against Spurs in the past, meaning there are only eight clubs against whom he has amassed more goals.
          What makes this remarkable is that he has only played them for 66 minutes, scoring the fourth and fifth goals in the 6-1 tonking dished out by Newcastle in April.

          The Swede may not have scored in his last two matches but had bagged six in his seven starts prior to those games so he has generally been in form of late.

          Over 11.5 Corners

          As well as goals, these teams deliver corners. Five of the last six meetings reached double figures, with three of them going to 12-or-above.

          And as with goal-heavy games, Spurs are on the corner train this season too. Only Manchester United (10) and Bournemouth (nine) have had more matches pay out on over 11.5 corners than Tottenham (eight). Their home games with Sheffield United and Liverpool both saw 17, the joint-fourth most in any Premier League match this season.

          While corners have been rarer in Newcastle’s matches, with two good attacking sides we should still be safe for Over 11.5 in this match.

          Over 4.5 Cards

          These teams have seen their games average 5.7 and 5.3 cards respectively this season and they should hit a number in that range on Sunday.

          There may have only been three bookings the last time they met but the match was so one-sided as to be a stroll for Newcastle. The preceding six clashes all saw at least five cards and this game should be fiercely competitive.

          Spurs v Newcastle Betting Tips

          Newcastle to Win
          Over 2.5 Goals
          Alexander Isak to Score
          Over 11.5 Corners
          Over 4.5 Cards

          All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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