Football Tips: Our 27/1 Everton v Manchester United Bet Builder

Andrew Beasley find the value when the Toffees entertain the Red Devils on Sunday afternoon.

Everton v Man United Bet Builder Betting Tips, Sunday 26th November 2023

By / Football Tips / 8 months ago

Everton v Man United Bet Builder Tips

Everton And Draw
Both Teams to Score, No
Dominic Calvert-Lewin to Score or Assist
Over 10.5 Corners
Over 3.5 Cards

 

Sunday 5:30pm: Everton v Man United
Premier League at Goodison Park, Liverpool
TV: Sky Sports Premier League/Main Event

Super Sunday takes us to Goodison Park for everybody’s favourite fixture, the  terrible owners derby. 

It’s Everton’s first match since the Premier League docked them 10 points for breaching financial rules, so there should be a fierce atmosphere. Blues fans have been devising all manner of protests at the punishment, though maybe they should be angrier about the club cheating only to then get worse.

And then there’s Manchester United. Their troubles over the last decade don’t need rehashing yet again here but hopefully we’ll be all set for a great game of Gary Neville bingo. He recently criticized the Glazers for buying the manager two players he wanted for £150m so where he goes next is anybody’s guess.

If we trust the data from this season, he’ll be ranting about the leaky roof at Old Trafford before we know it.

Everton And Draw

The expected goals table for the Premier League paints this game as a total mismatch. No team has overachieved against the underlying statistics by a wider margin than United, while only two have been further below par than Everton. 

The visitors are seven points ahead of the Blues – if we ignore the deduction – when they should be four behind according to the xG. What this ultimately means is that Everton’s price for a win looks like fantastic value.

But can you trust them to get the job done? Their recent home record against United isn’t too bad, with two wins and a draw from the last five games at Goodison. Defeats to Wolves, Fulham and Luton this season do not inspire confidence though.

In fairness, neither do Erik ten Hag’s mob. It was widely circulated that United were top of the league’s five-game form table after their last match but let’s review the four wins in that period: stoppage time winners from Bruno Fernandes(fair enough) and Scott McTominay (less so), with victories over newly promoted teams secured by goals from Diogo Dalot and Victor Lindelof. 

It’s hard to put faith in a team with that record succeeding at a fiery Goodison so let’s pick Everton to avoid defeat with a Double Chance pick.

 

Both Teams to Score, No

Everton’s wastefulness in front of goal has been much discussed this season and largely explains why their stats are much better than their results. The Blues lost their first four home games while amassing 7.2 expected goals and scoring only once.

Yet there is only one team in the division that has converted a lower proportion of its xG and Manchester United be its name. Only two players in England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain have squandered more expected goals than Marcus Rashford while Rasmus Hojlund is in the bottom seven from the big leagues too.

It sounds like a great choice for the most popular television time slot of the weekend, doesn’t it? With these teams in a group of five who’ve seen the most Premier League matches pay out on Both Teams to Score, No bets this season, that has to be the selection.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin to Score or Assist

Another edge Everton holds over United coming into this game is far fewer injuries, with ten Hag likely to be without 12 members of his squad (at the time of writing).

In attack, much of the Blues’ hopes rest on the shoulders of the often unavailable Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who should be fit to feature here. He has faced no team more than United, though he has only scored twice in his 13 appearances against them.

Equally, those goals came within his previous four league starts against the Red Devils, and he also has four goals and an assist in his most recent nine run-outs for Everton. Back DCL to harm EtH on Sunday.

Over 10.5 Corners

United have been the corner kings in the Premier League this season (you’ll never sing that, etc). Their matches have averaged 13.3 and all but three have paid out on over 11.5 corners.

With half the games at Goodison in 2023/24 seeing a maximum of nine, this might be one match for the visitors which is a little light for corners. With their figures this season we should be safe for Over 10.5 though.

Over 3.5 Cards

The last meeting of these teams was a relative rarity in that it didn’t feature a single card, just one of 17 such matches from the total of 380 in the Premier League last season for which this was the case.

None of those games were officiated by John Brooks, though. He’s in charge of proceedings at Goodison and is the most card-happy referee of the current crop, with an average of 4.5 per game across his 31-match Premier League career.

He should produce several here, so let’s assume Brooks will deliver over 3.5 to seal our Bet Builder.

Everton v Man United Bet Builder Tips

Everton And Draw
Both Teams to Score, No
Dominic Calvert-Lewin to Score or Assist
Over 10.5 Corners
Over 3.5 Cards

All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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