England v Malta Bet Builder Tips
England -4
Both Teams to Score, No
Harry Kane to Score 2 or more Goals
Over 6.5 England Corners
Under 2.5 Malta Corners
Under 1.5 Cards
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Friday 7:45pm: England v Malta
Wembley Stadium, London
TV: Channel 4
Has it really been seven years already? Back in 2016, shortly after the debacle of Big Sam and his pint of wine, England appointed Gareth Southgate to clear up the mess and his tenure began with a 2-0 victory over Malta at Wembley.
When he followed it up three days later with a goalless draw in Slovenia, nobody was thinking of World Cup semi-finals or going one better at the European Championships. They could certainly imagine England losing them, just not getting to those matches in the first place.
With the Three Lions assured of their spot at Euro 2024 next summer, it’s hard to know how Southgate will approach this and the game in North Macedonia on Monday. Logic dictates he should start roughly half the squad in this match and let the others deal with the other fixture.
But whatever he does, the men selected will cruise to a comfortable win.
England -4
Malta are currently ranked 171st out of the 207 nations in the FIFA Rankings. As they were 172nd when losing 4-0 to England in June, that counts as progress. Winning friendlies 1-0 against the might of Luxembourg and Gibraltar must carry a lot of weight as the Maltese have lost every qualifying match they’ve played this year.
England obviously have no such concerns. When a 1-1 draw away to Ukraine is the only blemish on an otherwise perfect record in 2023, things are looking up. It’s easy to forget how difficult the English used to make qualifying for tournaments but these days it’s a stroll.
Indeed, ahead of a disastrous Euro 2000, Kevin Keegan’s Three Lions only narrowly squeaked past Malta 2-1 in a warm-up game.
A look at England’s recent record against countries outside the top 100 in the rankings illustrates how one-sided this game will be – prior to the 4-0 against Malta there was a 10-0 win in San Marino and a five-zip against them at home, 5-0 and 4-0s with Andorra and a 4-0 in Kosovo.
With a Wembley crowd keen to be entertained on Friday night, England will rattle in plenty of goals and overcome Paddy Power’s -4 handicap easily enough.
Both Teams to Score, No
The Three Lions’ quest for a big win will be aided by a surety that they won’t let in any goals.
Only in a crazy 5-3 win over Kosovo has Southgate’s England conceded in 11 matches against non-top 100 countries. When these teams last met, Malta didn’t even manage a shot, never mind a goal.
They did have two efforts when losing 4-0 in Italy last month but so did San Marino in their most recent games with England and look at how that worked out for them. If a ‘no’ selection in the Both Teams to Score market doesn’t pay out, I will use a very particular set of skills to hunt down Jordan Pickford.
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Harry Kane to Score 2 or more Goals
Harry Kane will be licking his lips at the thought of beefing up his international goals total in this match and so will his penalties. The player known as Kane Penalties is up to joint 19th in England’s all-time goal scorer charts, with 21 of the Bayern Munich man’s 61 England goals coming from the spot.
When these sides met in June, both Kane and Callum Wilson scored penalties. They are the only such goals Malta have conceded in qualifying but with the pace and trickery of England’s attack allied to the random chaos of VAR, there could easily be a spot kick here.
Even if there isn’t, Kane will score regardless. Every time he has started for Southgate against a team ranked 114th or lower he has scored, and he came off the bench to net against Andorra too. Back Kane to score two, in fact, as he has already done so seven times this season.
Over 6.5 England Corners & Under 2.5 Malta Corners
England’s five previous home matches against rankings minnows have seen an average of just 6.6 corners and never more than nine. The most posted by any of the underdogs is two, so can Malta match the efforts of Lithuania in 2017?
They didn’t have any in their last two meetings with the Three Lions, and just one against Italy recently. Under 2.5 looks guaranteed for the visitors, while England should have enough attacking moments to have Over 6.5 at the other end.
Under 1.5 Cards
Cards have occasionally been more common in these mismatch games, with Kosovo and Andorra collecting five and six respectively on their last visit to these shores.
Again, though, Malta have only collected two across their three meetings with Southgate’s England, and have only averaged two per game across their seven matches in this qualification group.
Referee Luis Godinho is a relative novice at this level so is unlikely to want to cause a stir. The match should pass off like a friendly so round off your Bet Builder with an Under 1.5 cards selection.
England v Malta Betting Tips
England -4
Both Teams to Score, No
Harry Kane to Score 2 or more Goals
Over 6.5 England Corners
Under 2.5 Malta Corners
Under 1.5 Cards
A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 17/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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