Football Tips: Salah on target in our 29/1 Luton v Liverpool Bet Builder

Our footie tipster Andrew Beasley is backing the Reds on Sunday afternoon.

Luton v Liverpool Bet Builder Betting Tips Premier League

By / Football Tips / 9 months ago

Luton v Liverpool Betting Tips

Liverpool -1
Over 3.5 Goals
Mohamed Salah to Score
Over 11.5 Corners
Under 3.5 Cards

A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 29/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.

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Luton versus Liverpool is like looking in a mirror, only not quite. The Hatters have a win-draw-loss record of 1-2-7 across the opening 10 league games of the campaign, whereas the Reds’ hold an inverse 7-2-1, their fifth best start in the Premier League era.

The goals for and against match up almost perfectly too, with Liverpool’s 23-9 not far from the exact inverse of Luton’s 9-20. With such alignment, it’s no wonder the Reds are red-hot favourites.

But in many ways, this is the ultimate test of Jurgen Klopp’s ‘Liverpool 2.0’ team. This is the Reds’ first away match of 2023/24 against a side which starts the weekend in the bottom eight of the table, and they’ve only won at the homes of three of the clubs who occupied those positions at the end of last season.

What’s more, Liverpool took just one away point from the three newly promoted sides in 2022/23. If they can win here, and win well, Liverpool might have fully laid to rest the ghosts of their decrepit midfield.

Liverpool -1

And, of course, they should win at Kenilworth Road on Sunday afternoon, as the odds imply. Liverpool’s only loss in their last 21 league games occurred at Tottenham – we really don’t need to rake all that up again – and have only conceded two second half goals in the league this season.

The big question relates to the possible margin of their victory. After all, Luton may have only taken one point at home this season (compared with four on the road) but the three defeats have all been by a single goal. That includes hosting league leaders and media darlings Spurs too.

While their road schedule has been tricky, Liverpool only has one away win by more than one goal in 2023/24, and that – at Molineux – was secured thanks to a 90th minute own goal.

Equally, that was their easiest away game based on league position at the start of this weekend and they won all three home games against teams below Wolves by at least two goals.

On that basis, the Reds should be able to overcome the -1 handicap.

    Over 3.5 Goals

    Luton and Liverpool played out one of the most memorable FA Cup matches of the last two decades back in 2006. The Reds came from 3-1 down to win 5-3 in with Xabi Alonso scoring the fifth from inside his own half.

    While a repeat of that is unlikely, as is the 5-0 Liverpool win when the teams last met two years later, we should see plenty of goals.

    Liverpool can’t be relied upon to keep a clean sheet for one thing. They have yet to record a shutout away from home and only did so twice against the bottom eight last season. Add in that Luton have only failed to score once at Kenilworth Road and it’s fair to think Rob Edwards’ boys can get on the board here.

    Even if they don’t, Liverpool should score a few. Only one team in the division has scored at least three more times in 2023/24, and while they had their issues on the road last term, they scored 13 goals when visiting the three relegated sides.

    The starting front three all scored in the win over Nottingham Forest last weekend, so there should be over 3.5 goals here.

    Mohamed Salah to Score

    As well as being in form, none of Liverpool’s strikers are massively overperforming against their underlying numbers, meaning their scoring rates are unlikely to collapse. Great news for them, not so much for Luton.

    What we don’t know is who Klopp will pick to start here, one man aside. Mohamed Salah always occupies the right forward berth, and he will hope to carry on from his last away match, the 2-2 draw at Brighton in which he scored both Reds’ goals.

    With six goals in his last five appearances, and penalty duty whenever Liverpool get one, Salah can bag a goal here.

    Over 11.5 Corners

    Liverpool are a tough team to assess when looking at recent history. They were so far below their usual selves last season that much of the data feels almost worthless when looking at them now.

    The rate of corners in their matches on the road against non-Big Six sides has remained pretty consistent across the last five seasons though, with an average of 10 per game whether their campaign was good, bad or indifferent.

    Kenilworth Road’s four Premier League matches have all featured at least 11 and an average of 12.5, so there should be Over 11.5 Corners.

    Under 3.5 Cards

    While you might expect a newly promoted team to try to bridge the gulf with an overly physical approach, Luton are bottom of the total cards per game table with 3.5. That this figure was only a touch below average last term shows how the rate has risen rapidly.

    With Liverpool at 3.9, though, there shouldn’t be too many. Referee Andy Madley has only averaged 3.2 across his Premier League career, so take the Under 3.5 cards option.

    Luton v Liverpool Bet Builder Tips

    Liverpool -1
    Over 3.5 Goals
    Mohamed Salah to Score
    Over 11.5 Corners
    Under 3.5 Cards

    A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 29/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.

    *All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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