Football Tips: Wilson to shine in our 33/1 Man Utd v Newcastle Bet Builder

Our tipster Sam Farley reckons the Toon will book their place in the quarter-finals.


Man Utd v Newcastle Betting Tips:

Newcastle to Qualify for the Next Round
Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams to Score
Callum Wilson to Score Anytime
Bruno Guimaraes to be Shown a Card

Man Utd v Newcastle
Carabao Cup – Round 4
Old Trafford, Manchester, Wednesday, 8:15pm
Sky Sports Football

We’ve got a big slate of Carabao Cup action this midweek and the pick of the games has to be Wednesday’s clash between Manchester United and Newcastle. Erik ten Hag’s men won this competition last season – beating these opponents at Wembley – but they’re struggling currently, while the Toon are desperate for the first silverware of the new regime.

Newcastle to qualify for the next round

Man Utd won 2-0 in the 2022 final and Newcastle’s supporters will be desperate for revenge. This is a club who have been injected with new life…and lots of money.

Domestically Newcastle are having a better season than Wednesday’s hosts. They’re only two points clear in the Premier League but they’ve looked strong and haven’t lost a league game since the start of September. That can’t be said for Man Utd who look like a club in serious crisis. I think Newcastle are the better side currently and should manage to win here, but they might need to do it on penalties.

Over 2.5 goals

This isn’t a direct comparison given that there are differences between the Carabao Cup and the Premier League but Man Utd have had Over 2.5 goals in 66.7% of their games at Old Trafford in the league, with four of six matches having three or more goals. Newcastle have seen lots of goals this season with 70% of league games hitting the Over, rising to 80% when they’re on the road, with a 1-0 loss at Man City being the only away league game all season that didn’t hit the three-goal mark.

Given the importance of this trophy to both Erik ten Hag and Eddie Howe I’m expecting them to pick their strongest sides, which will mean this should be treated more like a Premier League game. So we’ll be backing the Over 2.5 trends from the league to continue.


Both teams to score

As well as expecting Over 2.5 goals I’m also expecting both Man Utd and Newcastle to find the back of the net here. As much as the hosts have struggled they still have some talented goalscorers like Marcus Rashford and Rasmus Hojlund, even if they are slightly out of form.

Domestically we’ve seen Man Utd score in eight of their 11 games across the Premier League and Carabao Cup, likewise Newcastle have scored in 10 of 11 games this season. So we know there’s goals to be had here from both sides.

Callum Wilson to score anytime

With Alexander Isak out injured it means we know Callum Wilson will almost certainly be starting for Newcastle. I’m more than happy to rely on the English striker here and expect him to score. He’s been in incredible form this season, in nine Premier League games, of which just four were starts, he’s bagged seven goals.

He’s scored six goals in his past six Premier League games, bagging in five of those matches and banging in a brace against Wolves at the weekend. The 31-year-old is in red hot form and I fancy him to score against a Man Utd backline who looked poor against Man City in their derby defeat this past week.

Bruno Guimaraes to be Shown a Card

Given that I’m expecting Newcastle to progress from this game it’s going to mean that they are fighting for 90 minutes for the win. That means we’re going to see battles in the heart of midfield and there’s one man I think we’re likely to see booked if this game gets tasty, which I think it will, and that’s Bruno Guimaraes.

Guimaraes is a yellow card magnet, having already picked up four bookings in the 10 Premier League games, as well as a pair of cards in European competition too. He averages 1.9 tackles per game, as well as 1.7 fouls committed per game. I think we’ll see his name in the referee Robert Jones’ book on Wednesday, especially when Jones has averaged 5.13 yellows per game across the eight Premier League games he’s been in charge of this season.

Man Utd v Newcastle Bet Builder Tips:

Newcastle to Qualify for the Next Round
Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams to Score
Callum Wilson to Score Anytime
Bruno Guimaraes to be Shown a Card

All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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