Fulham v Chelsea Bet Builder Tips
Chelsea to Win
Under 2.5 Goals
Raheem Sterling to Score
Over 10.5 Corners
Over 3.5 Cards
A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 39/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Premier League
Craven Cottage, 8pm
TV: Sky Sports Main Event/Premier League
Monday Night Football takes us to west London this week and a derby between Fulham and Chelsea. After Jamie Carragher and Gary Neville have inevitably dissected what Manchester United did wrong this weekend (“it’s the Glazer’s fault they can’t defend, Jamie”) they’ll probably have plenty to pull apart after this game.
After all, Chelsea are so bad in front of goal that Nicolas Jackson won their goal of the month for September by virtue of scoring their only goal. Fulham have only scored four September goals and are already into double figures for goals conceded for the season.
As only Sheffield United have allowed their collective opponents a higher expected goals total than the Cottagers this season, there should be plenty of poor defending for the pundits to dig into. But can Chelsea take advantage?
Chelsea to Win
If matches were settled on expected goals – as they will be when I’m in charge – Chelsea would be third in the table at the start of the weekend, not 14th (and perhaps lower by the time this match kicks off). Fulham, ironically, should be third bottom and without a win to their name.
But it was a similar story last season, with the corresponding fixture proving the point. Chelsea led the shot count by 20 to eight and had four Opta-defined big chances while only allowing one, yet lost 2-1. The faces may change at Stamford Bridge on a weekly basis but the issues have been in place for a while.
Chelsea don’t take the excellent chances they generate, leaving them susceptible to a counter punch, as Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa have recently proven. The same could easily happen here, in a derby and under the lights, or they could stumble to a goalless draw after having 14 shots without scoring, as happened at Bournemouth.
But Mauricio Pochettino’s side normally have plenty of shots and Fulham are defensively wide open so a Chelsea win has to be the Match Odds selection.
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Under 2.5 Goals
But let’s be realistic, the Blues are unlikely to go goal crazy. For one thing, their only player who scored in September is suspended.
Matches between these teams rarely feature many goals. The aforementioned 2-1 Fulham victory was the only one of the last four meetings which saw both teams score or more than two goals in total.
With Chelsea giving up very little to their opponents, it’s going to be hard for Marco Silva’s side to score many. Unless the visitors can cash in all the chances they’ve wasted this season, this game should feature under 2.5 goals.
Raheem Sterling to Score
With Jackson suspended (sorry, Miss), Armando Broja looks like the most likely candidate to fill in up front. He is barely just returning from serious injury, though, and has played just 300 minutes of Premier League football since the start of last season.
As Mykhailo Mudryk still looks more like a James Bond villain’s henchman than a £89m footballer, the burden of finding the net will fall most heavily upon Raheem Sterling.
The England international is second behind Jackson for shots taken by Chelsea players this season and unlike most of his blue brethren, he is scoring in line with his underlying numbers.
Over 10.5 Corners
As with goals, derbies between Fulham and Chelsea tend to see more corners when they are held at Craven Cottage. The last two clashes there both saw at least 12, when the previous pair at Stamford Bridge featured 17 in total.
These teams have only played twice at home or away as appropriate in 2023/24, so there isn’t much form to consider. However, as Fulham had at least five corners in their two and Chelsea seven-or-more in theirs, a total of over 10.5 looks a reasonable assumption.
Over 3.5 Cards
Tim Robinson is an American comedian, probably best known for I Think You Should Leave. Apparently, he’s also refereeing this match. It’s good to have diverse interests, I guess?
Referee Robinson is trying to make the step up from the second tier, as he has just five Premier League matches on his CV compared to 232 in the Championship. One of his top flight games saw Forest win at Stamford Bridge at the start of September, so Poch will be delighted to see him again.
Both teams received at least three cards in that game, and he showed four in his other top flight match this season. With the two meetings of these teams totalling 12 yellow cards last season, there should be over 3.5 here easily enough.
Fulham v Chelsea Bet Builder Tips
Chelsea to Win
Under 2.5 Goals
Raheem Sterling to Score
Over 10.5 Corners
Over 3.5 Cards
A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 39/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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