Chelsea v Luton Bet Builder Tips
Alternative Handicaps: Chelsea -1
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over
Anytime Goalscorer: Nicolas Jackson
Corners Over/Under 11.5: Over
Cards Over/Under 4.5: Over
A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 22/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.
The latest football odds are on PaddyPower.com nowFriday 8pm: Chelsea vs Luton
Premier League match at Stamford Bridge
TV: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League
The Todd Boehly era at Chelsea can be summed up by a simple fact. During his time at the helm, the Blues have signed eight players more than matches they’ve won in all competitions, 24 to 16. And that’s at the time of writing, the scales might have tipped further towards transfers by the time their match with Luton kicks off on Friday evening.
After going through four managers last season, Transfers Todd won’t want to dismiss Mauricio Pochettino too swiftly. But after one point from the first two games, a home loss against the newly promoted relegation favourite Hatters would seriously amp up the pressure on the Chelsea boss. It can’t happen, can it? Let’s consider the facts of the case.
Alternative Handicaps: Chelsea -1
While the results have been poor, Chelsea could easily have won both their opening matches this season. Against Liverpool, Pochettino’s pups had a goal narrowly ruled out for offside and squandered four Opta-defined clear-cut chances, while they could have gone 2-1 up at West Ham last weekend had Enzo Fernandez not missed a penalty.
There is also their record from last season to consider. While Chelsea were abysmal against sides who finished 2022/23 in the top half of the table, winning just one of 20 such matches, their form against the strugglers genuinely prevented them from being relegated.
The Blues hosted nine other eventual bottom half sides, winning seven times, drawing twice (throwing away leads both times) and losing only once. Granted, the defeat was to bottom side Southampton and 20 th is where Paddy expects Luton to finish, but Chelsea should have far too much here.
As the Hatters allowed six clear-cut chances at Brighton last time out, the home side should have enough opportunities to win by at least two goals.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over
These sides have met twice relatively recently considering this is Luton’s first top flight campaign since football began in 1992.
In the two clashes, both of which were in the FA Cup, there were plenty of goals. The Blues ran out 3-1 winners at the Bridge in 2021, then won 3-2 at Kenilworth Road last year. The crazy turnover of players at Chelsea is highlighted by their goal scorers in those games: Tammy Abraham bagged a hat-trick in the first game, Saul Niguez, Timo Werner and Romelu Lukaku netted in the second. Not to sound like Peter Kay, but do you remember them? Do you? Of course you do, they’ve only just left.
No ground saw fewer goals then Stamford Bridge in the Premier League last season. However, four of the seven games which paid out on over 2.5 goals there saw Chelsea host teams in the bottom seven. By that logic, there’s a strong chance this game does too.
Anytime Goalscorer: Nicolas Jackson
Despite the bloated squad at his disposal, Pochettino kept an almost consistent starting XI across his first two matches, and likely wouldn’t have made any changes were it not for Reece James’ injury. There are unlikely to be many changes for the visit of Luton.
It’s far too early in the campaign to be paying much attention to underlying numbers and goalless runs but Nicolas Jackson has been getting in good positions without yet applying a finish. Only three players have accumulated more non-penalty expected goals in this fledgling season, and the former Villarreal man scored 12 times from nine xG in La Liga so should come good soon enough. The visit of a recent Championship defence should allow him to break his duck with a goal here.
Corners Over/Under 11.5: Over
Stamford Bridge might not have seen many goals last season, but it was only 11 shy of enjoying the most corners. You’ll never sing that etc. Luton should bring something to this particular party too. Despite only having 30 per cent possession at Brighton, they still had the ball long enough to attempt 22 crosses. For context, no top flight team averaged that many last season, with the Premier League averaging 17.3 per club per game in 2022/23.
And crosses equals clearances equals corners. There should be over 11.5 easily enough.
Cards Over/Under 4.5: Over
Luton had the second biggest gap between how many yellow cards they received on the road compared with at home in the Championship last season, with the away games seeing far more. Chelsea’s league matches averaged 3.8 in 2022/23, so it’s reasonable to expect a few bookings here. Referees have been going card crazy so far this season though, with five players sent off already when there were 30 in the whole of last season. While there may not be a sending off on Friday night, referee Robert Jones is above league average for dishing out yellow cards. He should deal over 4.5 in this match.
Chelsea vs. Luton Betting Tips
Alternative Handicaps: Chelsea -1
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over
Anytime Goalscorer: Nicolas Jackson
Corners Over/Under 11.5: Over
Cards Over/Under 4.5: Over
A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 22/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
READ MORE
- Shoot on over to Paddy Power News for the best Football Betting Tips & News
- Football Tips: Phil Thompson’s 2023/24 Premier League title prediction and top 3 shouts with 5/1 double
- Peter Crouch’s Premier League predictions: Liverpool to surge back into top 4
- Man City and Newcastle awarded inaugural Gulf state FFP gong
THE PADDY POWER GUIDE TO SAFER GAMBLING – EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW
