Football Tips: Sunday's 30/1 Aston Villa v Everton Bet Builder

Aston Villa v Everton Bet Builder Tips

Aston Villa -1
Over 2.5 goals
Ollie Watkins to score
Over 10.5 corners
Over 4.5 cards

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Aston Villa v Everton
English Premier League
Villa Park, Sunday, 14:00pm

It’s all too easy to become the Premier League’s crisis club. Aston Villa and Everton will be looking to avoid that tag when they clash at Villa Park on Sunday afternoon.

Much more is expected of the home side than the visitors this season, but it was Villa who suffered the far worse result last weekend, getting thumped 5-1 by Newcastle. Another loss here and their hopes of building upon last season’s impressive form under Unai Emery will take a hit.

But things could be worse, they could be Everton. Having narrowly escaped relegation for the last two seasons, the Blues have signed a 38-year-old Villa didn’t want and a player who didn’t want to join them as recently as January.

Paddy currently has Everton as fifth favourites to go down but with Wolves’ surprisingly good performance at Old Trafford, a defeat here will leave Sean Dyche’s boys staring at another long, tough campaign.

Aston Villa -1

Fortunately for Villa, they couldn’t have asked for a kinder fixture when looking to bounce back like Alan Partridge. In recent years they have owned Everton, as I believe the kids say.

The Villans have won six of the eight Premier League meetings since they were promoted in 2019, drawing the other two. They haven’t even been behind in any of those matches, it has been largely one way traffic.

Emery steered his side to the fourth best home record in the division for the period he was in charge, and they closed out 2022/23 with seven consecutive victories at Villa Park.

Prior to their 1-0 defeat to Fulham last weekend, every loss Everton had suffered under Dyche had been by at least a two-goal margin. Combine that with Villa’s home form and the hosts look very capable of winning by two to overcome the handicap.

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Over 2.5 goals

And if we’re assuming that Villa can score at least twice, why not three times?

They have played 13 Premier League games under Emery on home turf and there has been over 2.5 goals in nine of them. That equates to a 69 per cent hit rate which is both nice and would’ve been the fourth highest in the division across the whole season.

We can’t rule out Everton from scoring either. They might’ve drawn a blank last time out but they had four clear-cut chances, the fourth most across match week one. With Villa having conceded a whopping nine golden opportunities to Newcastle, over 2.5 goals in this game looks a solid choice.

Anytime Goalscorer: Ollie Watkins

The obvious choice for a goal scorer pick is Ollie Watkins. The England international finished last season in good form at Villa Park, scoring six goals in the final nine games there.

If you’re feeling adventurous, Watkins has bagged the opener in two of Villa’s last five wins over Everton while only Erling Haaland and Harry Kane broke the 0-0 deadlock more times than him last term.

He is worth considering for a First Goalscorer bet, but we’ll take the safer Anytime option for our Bet Builder.

Over 10.5 corners

These teams don’t tend to bring too many corners out of each other, with an average of 9.3 in their last eight clashes.

However, they were both joint-third in the top flight for matches featuring at least 11 corners last season, and that was also the outcome in their opening games of 2023/24.

With form like that, we can be confident they’ll overreach their head-to-head average and justify our selection of over 10.5 corners.

Over 4.5 cards

It’s fair to ask if this will be the most card-heavy game the Premier League has ever seen.

Aston Villa were one shy of having the joint-most cards in their games last season, with Everton only three behind them and both sides seeing an average of at least 4.1.

Match referee Anthony Taylor is a little below that mark in his Premier League career (3.4) but he has proven to be the man most likely to punish time wasting and dissent – he issued three cards for those offences at Stamford Bridge last weekend, for instance.

With Villa the most heavily booked team for time wasting in 2022/23 – and it wasn’t even close – there could be bedlam here. Over 4.5 cards is a high line but this combination of teams and ref should reach it with ease.