Burnley vs. Manchester City – Bet Builder Preview
Handicap Betting: Man City (-1)
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over
First Goalscorer: Erling Haaland
10.5 Corners: Under
2.5 Cards: Under
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The greatest show on earth, at least if you believe the adverts, is back for 2023/24. The new Premier League season kicks off with a managerial meeting between Pep Guardiola and his former captain, Vincent Kompany.
Or Burnley vs. Manchester City, as it’s more widely being billed. This sort of match is classic fodder for the campaign opener, with an underdog hosting one of the big boys, with the bonus of it being the Championship title-winners against the defending champions.
That match-up would make for a more interesting Community Shield if you ask me, but that’s another story. These sides met in the FA Cup last season and City won 6-0, so is another thrashing of the Clarets on the cards?
Burnley v Man City
English Premier League
Turf Moor
TV: Sky Sports Main Event, 8:00pm
Handicap Betting: Man City (-1)
With a beered-up Burnley crowd ready to welcome the 2022/23 treble winners to Turf Moor under the Friday night lights, this game should be closer than that last tussle.
Kompany’s side were also unbeaten at home in the league until promotion was secured last season, conceding more than once in just three of their 23 games on their own patch.
But Guardiola has overseen 15 wins and a draw from his 16 meetings with Burnley, his side having scored 52 goals while conceding just five. City have won on their previous five visits to this corner of Lancashire, the last four by at least two goals.
They were also victorious by that margin in six of their away games against the teams who finished in the Premier League bottom eight last season. Burnley are expected to avoid relegation but are priced to finish no higher than 13th so everything is pointing towards City overcoming the handicap.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over
It may be that City win 2-0, just as they did in their last two matches at Turf Moor.
However, there have tended to be more goals at Burnley under Kompany than there were in Sean Dyche’s reign of terror. The Clarets were fourth in the Championship for matches paying out on over 2.5 goals last season, and joint-top for home games.
There’s a reasonable chance they may score too, with City only keeping one clean sheet more than the likes of Brentford and Aston Villa while recording the same total as Fulham on the road in 2022/23.
Or maybe the visitors run riot, it’s entirely possible. Either way, adding over 2.5 goals to your Bet Builder looks the sensible choice.
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First Goalscorer: Erling Haaland
By his own ridiculous standards, Erling Haaland is bang out of form.
The Norwegian goal machine failed to score in the final five matches of last season and his only strikes in the warm up games this summer came against the might of Yokohama F. Marinos.
Haaland didn’t even have a shot in the Community Shield loss to Arsenal, though in fairness he was probably treating the fixture with the seriousness it deserves, e.g. none.
And ominously for Burnley, it’s only five months since he scored a hattrick against them in the FA Cup, his goals putting City 3-0 up. The former Dortmund man also scored six goals against the newly promoted teams last season, netting against all of them at least once.
Haaland scored the opening goal nine times in his debut Premier League campaign – only Harry Kane (12) bettered him last term – and he can break the deadlock to kick off 2023/24 too.
Corners Over/Under 10.5: Under
Manchester City won just about everything there was to win last season (and might have won it all were it not for the managerial genius of Nathan Jones) but they were bottom of the Premier League for total corners per game.
I’m sure Guardiola is devastated about that. It’s easy to understand why corners are low in City’s games as their possession-heavy style means the ball is usually in play rather than going out of it.
Their away matches averaged 8.3 last term, while Burnley’s games at Turf Moor saw two per game more but still not that many.
With those numbers, we should be safe with an ‘under 10.5’ selection here.
Cards Over/Under 2.5: Under
The one-sided nature of the relationship between these teams means cards have been thin on the ground. The last seven clashes have seen a total of just 10 cards, with the last three matches each only featuring one apiece.
With referees having been instructed to clamp down on time wasting and dissent, it’s likely all clubs will see an increase in their card numbers this season.
However, match referee Craig Pawson was lenient on those offences last season so unless he has an immediate and massive change of heart, history suggests there will be under 2.5 cards in this match.
Burnley vs. Manchester City Tips
Handicap Betting: Man City (-1)
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over
First Goalscorer: Erling Haaland
10.5 Corners: Under
2.5 Cards: Under
A Paddy Power Multi-Game Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 30/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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