Nations League Betting Tips
2pm – Netherlands v Italy
Both Teams to Score Two or More
Virgil Van Dijk to Commit 1 or More Fouls
7:45pm – Croatia v Spain
Over 2.5 Goals
Luka Modric to have 1 or More Shots on Target
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Netherlands v Italy
De Grolsch Veste, Enschede, Netherlands
TV: Viaplay, 2pm
Both Teams to Score Two or More
We’re likely to see a strong reaction from the home side here in front of their fans after the disappointment of Wednesday night. Pulling a draw from the clenches of defeat they seemed to have the upper hand going into Extra Time but Croatia came out on top in the end. The hosts are formidable on home soil and have hit the back of the next at least twice in nine of their last 12 and we see that trend continuing.
Italy’s striker struggles are long-known now but they have scored at least two goals in five of their last eight away games. They were unlucky not to score more against Spain on Thursday as well. The Dutch have conceded at least two in three of their last six at home and while they certainly have plenty of talent at the back they’re just not gelling properly and Italy have enough talent to bag two goals here.
Virgil Van Dijk to Commit 1 or More Fouls
Liverpool’s Virgil Van Dijk has averaged 0.7 fouls over his last 52 games for both club and country and we saw against Croatia midweek that he’s often left exposed by those playing in front of him.
He should be able to handle what Ciro Immobile and Nicolo Zaniolo throw at him on Sunday afternoon but both players are great at drawing fouls and while he shouldn’t get booked we’re likely to see him committing at least a foul against the Italians.
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Croatia v Spain
Stadion Feijenoord, Rotterdam, Netherlands
TV: Viaplay 7:45pm
Over 2.5 Goals
Spain come into the Nations League final looking to land their first piece of silverware since the 2012 Euros while Croatia will be aiming to land their first major trophy after finishing second in the 2018 World Cup and third in last year’s in Qatar. Both sides share the stat of Over 2.5 goals being scored in three of their last five matches.
We’re well-versed in Croatia’s tactics by now, they’ll sit back and counter at lightning speed and have plenty of talent all over the front six to stick the ball in the back of the net. Spain won’t be shy about getting forward too, they had a total of 13 shots against the Italians on Thursday and with the likes of Alvaro Morata, Rodrigo and Joselu from off the bench available, goals should be on the menu here. It’s worth mentioning too that all four of their most recent meetings have seen Over 2.5 goals landing, while three of them saw at least five goals.
Luka Modric to have 1 or More Shots on Target
Over his last 68 games both on international and club duty, the Real Madrid midfield maestro has averaged just under a shot per game with his La Liga and World Cup stats being 0.9 per games and his Champions League stats being 0.7 per match.
Zlatko Dalic does prefer his side to create opportunities in the box but, as we saw against the Dutch, when they need to they’ll let fly from distance. Modric loves a shot when he has a chance so we’re marking him down to get at least one on Sunday night.
Nations League Betting Tips
Netherlands v Italy
Both Teams to Score Two or More
Virgil Van Dijk to Commit 1 or More Fouls
Croatia v Spain
Over 2.5 Goals
Luka Modric to have 1 or More Shots on Target
A Multi-Match Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 28/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.
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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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