FA Cup Final Betting Tips: 5 key stats and trends to consider for your Man City v Man Utd free Bet Builder

Andrew Beasley shakes down the stats and trends ahead of Saturday's showpiece.

By / Football Tips / 1 year ago

It’s the FA Cup final this weekend and for the first time ever we have a Manchester derby on our hands. If you’re looking to have a flutter, Paddy’s have got you covered with a whole host of different Manchester City v Manchester United betting markets.

You can combine them with a Bet Builder – of which Paddy is giving away for free for the game – but it’s important to consider your options and the various factors which will be in play before having a bet.

With that in mind, here are some facts and stats which could prove vital at Wembley on Saturday.

One-sided disciplinary record

This is not a heated derby in terms of cards. There have been eight Manchester dust ups since the last one with a sending off, and the last six clashes have seen a relatively-modest total of 17 yellows.

But it’s interesting that the last eight cards have all been shown to United players. City have gone 302 minutes against their crosstown rivals without a booking and they’ve probably had the ball for most of that, which explains why.

It’s worth noting the last four bookings have all been for midfielders too. Casemiro is likely to be busy in this one and committed the most fouls of any player from either club in the league this season. There’s an obvious related element to bear in mind next.

The referee

Greater Manchester’s Paul Tierney oversees affairs as the Man United v Man City referee at Wembley. He has never had the whistle in this derby but is above Premier League average for issuing yellow cards and has shown 3.9 per game over the last two seasons.

Another point of Tierney interest is that he has awarded six penalties to both sides over the years, more than he has given to any other club. If you think there’ll be a penalty here – and there was in the Etihad derby earlier this season – then take note of the following: Erling Haaland took seven of City’s 10 spot kicks in the league, with Julian Alvarez, Ilkay Gundogan and Riyad Mahrez having one apiece.

United had far fewer, but Bruno Fernandes was the main taker, with two. Anthony Martial took the other, scoring against City. Two of United’s last five derby goals away from Old Trafford came from the penalty spot. Don’t say I didn’t warn you. Tierney could definitely impact the goal scorer markets.

Paul Tierney

The Grealish factor

The referee is likely to be kept busy by Jack Grealish, the fourth most fouled player in the 2022/23 Premier League. The City winger only came off the bench in the 57th minute of the last derby and still suffered three fouls, the second most of any player across the whole match.

Two of them led to bookings, with Christian Eriksen and Fred the offenders in question. Grealish didn’t feature in the last two league games but Pep Guardiola said he should be ready for Wembley.

He will keep Aaron Wan-Bissaka very busy on their shared flank. The United man doesn’t commit that many fouls but did so twice against Barcelona and Newcastle, so can be exploited in big games.

City’s tactics

City played in a 4-3-3 formation in the two league derbies this season. However, after losing at Old Trafford, Pep didn’t use those tactics for over three months, with his team mostly using a back three (when in possession if not at all times).

United scored nine league goals against teams starting the match with three central defenders this season, and they were bagged by eight different players. But two of the last five were scored by Marcus Rashford, the most recent a fine counter attack at Tottenham.

City are obviously far better than Spurs’ sorry side but hitting them on the break is probably United’s best chance this weekend. It could all align nicely for a bet on Rashford to score.

Wembley

These teams have only clashed twice at Wembley. City won an FA Cup semi-final 1-0 in April 2011, with United getting a taste of revenge four months later in the Community Shield.

That game ended 3-2 but a low scorer looks likely based on recent history. Only one of the last five FA Cup finals has seen both teams score, and that hasn’t occurred in any of City’s three finals in their era of being rich.

The trend is even stronger for United, with at least one side ending with nil in eight of their last nine finals in this competition. They don’t have much history against each other at Wembley but against other clubs there’s rarely too many goals.

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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