Arsenal v Southampton Bet Builder Tips
Arsenal -1
Over 3.5 Goals
Gabriel Jesus to Score 2 or More Goals
Under 9.5 Corners
Under 2.5 Cards
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Friday, April 21: 8pm
TV: Sky Sports Premier League
It’s top against bottom at the Emirates Stadium on Friday night but only one of the clubs is the favourite in their respective market. Southampton arrive in north London rock bottom of the Premier League, winless in their last six matches and four points adrift of the salvation of 17th place. They are 15/2 to stay up and I’d keep your money in your pocket if I were you.
While bleak in a vastly different way, Arsenal’s title hopes have faded following a pair of draws in which they had led 2-0 in both. Manchester City are odds-on to win the title for the fifth time in the last six seasons. Those ‘farmers league’ barbs you level across Europe? Looks closer to home doesn’t it?
With a trip to the Etihad next Wednesday, three points are an absolute must for the Gunners here. A visit from a relative bogey team is not the fixture Mikel Arteta would have chosen.
Arsenal -1
Southampton have taken four points from their last two meetings with Arsenal, with the reverse fixture ending 1-1 in October. Granted, they lost 3-0 at the Emirates last season but drew their two visits prior to that.
While a victory at Chelsea isn’t the scalp it once was, the Saints’ previous win on the road occurred at Stamford Bridge in February. With draws against Manchester United and Tottenham since, Southampton have a better points-per-game average against the established Big Six than versus the other teams.
But even taking account of this, it’s impossible to expect anything other than a home victory. It’s what the Gunners have delivered in every match at the Emirates against the bottom 11 teams in the division, and all but once against the sides from fifth place down.
With Southampton having a solitary point on the road against the top half of the Premier League – and just three draws home or away – it’s Arsenal to win by at least two goals here.
Over 3.5 Goals
The chant ‘1-0 to the Arsenal’ won’t have been heard late on in games too often this season. Despite having the third best defensive record in the Premier League, the Gunners are still conceding a goal per game and their recent matches have been goal crazy.
Only one of Arsenal’s last seven league games didn’t feature at least four and even the exception paid out on over 2.5 (when they won 3-0 at Fulham). Their seven home games against the current bottom nine have all seen four-or-more goals bagged too.
With Southampton having conceded four times at both Manchester City (inevitably) and Tottenham (far less so), a bet on over 3.5 goals looks solid here.
Gabriel Jesus To Score 2 or More Goals
Gabriel Jesus has been in good form lately and looks a strong pick to score twice. He bagged a brace in Arsenal’s last home game, before scoring against both Liverpool and West Ham after that.
He’s usually heavily involved when playing against Southampton too. In his six appearances since he last scored against them, Jesus has averaged 4.0 shots and 0.9 expected goals per 90 minutes. A repeat of those sort of numbers on home turf and he should be good for two goals.
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Under 9.5 Corners
The Emirates might have seen a lot of goals but it hasn’t generally seen many corners. The exceptions have occurred when Arsenal have had to work hard to break opposing teams down in search of late winners (such as against Bournemouth and Manchester United). That shouldn’t be an issue here.
None of their recent home wins over Everton, Crystal Palace and Leeds saw more than nine corners, after all. Southampton had eight against 10 men at Old Trafford, but otherwise haven’t had more than four in any of their last 11 away matches, so take the under 9.5 corners option.
Under 2.5 Cards
Both meetings of these teams in 2020 saw a home player sent off, though as nobody was there to see it, did it really happen?
The record since suggests it was all a fever dream, as none of the last four clashes saw more than three cards. The same is true for six of Arsenal’s last seven league matches at the Emirates.
Simon Hooper delivered the four bookings our Nottingham Forest versus Manchester United Bet Builder needed last weekend, but he should revert to form here and show under 2.5 cards.
Arsenal v Southampton Betting Tips
Arsenal -1
Over 3.5 Goals
Gabriel Jesus to Score 2 or More Goals
Under 9.5 Corners
Under 2.5 Cards
A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 26/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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