Bet Builder Tips: Villa to frustrate Chelsea in our 34/1 Saturday punt

Our tipster Andrew Beasley runs the rule over Saturday evening's top-flight fare.

By / Football Tips / 2 years ago

Chelsea v Aston Villa Bet Builder Tips

Double Chance: Aston Villa and Draw
Both Teams to Score
Ollie Watkins To Score or Assist
Over 10.5 Corners
Under 3.5 Cards

A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 34/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

Saturday 5.30pm: Chelsea v Aston Villa
TV: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League

Double Chance: Aston Villa and Draw

There’s midtable games between teams who have nothing to play for, and then there’s Chelsea against Aston Villa. The teams start the day 10th and 11th respectively in the Premier League, 11 points above the team directly below them and 11 behind the coveted top four with 11 games to go.

But there’s still something at stake here. Graham Potter has yet to convince as Chelsea manager and both he and Unai Emery will want to sort out their squads ahead of their first summer transfer windows at their respective clubs. The bad news for the Blues is that the visitors have been in fine form on the road since the Spaniard took charge.

Villa have been the third best away team in the Premier League in the Emery era, and second on a points-per-game basis. While they were very poor in a 3-1 defeat at Manchester City, Emery’s side have won four and drawn one of their other five games which weren’t at Villa Park.

They were also very unlucky to lose 2-0 to Chelsea when they last met, albeit Stevie G was in charge at that point. According to the underlying numbers, it was the best performance by a Blues goalkeeper in the last six seasons. That it was Kepa Arrizabalaga between the sticks only made it weirder.

Chelsea’s performances have been getting better in expected goal terms even if the results haven’t tracked. As such, even though they’re rightly favourites to win, it remains impossible to have faith that they will, particularly with their injury list nudging double figures. Villa have been excellent away from home and can carry that on by avoiding defeat at Stamford Bridge on Saturday with Villa Win/Draw Double Chance.

Both Teams to Score

Neither of these teams is particularly high in the Both Teams to Score standings. However, it has occurred in three of the last four meetings in west London and in the one exception – a 3-0 home win in September 2021 – Villa had 18 shots. It’s rare for a team to have that many efforts without finding the net.

Since Emery took over, the Villans have scored in every away game too. Across the last eight Premier League matches at home or on the road, only they and Arsenal have avoided failing to score every time. With that form in front of goal and Chelsea not shy of generating chances themselves, a ‘yes’ selection in the Both Teams to Score market looks a wise choice.

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Ollie Watkins To Score or Assist

Assuming Villa are going to get the better of Kepa, Ollie Watkins will likely be the man to seal the deal. The England international has scored or assisted in all five of his away appearances for Emery, finding the net four times. Watkins is the obvious choice for the visitors in the Score or Assist market.

Over 10.5 Corners

Just as these teams enjoy plenty of chances and goals when they face off, so they used to have a lot of corners. The first five league meetings after Villa were last promoted saw an average of 13.4, and never fewer than 11.

However, the last two saw seven and eight respectively. With both occurring at Villa Park, though, the three matches at Chelsea have seen 14, 15 and 15 so can we expect another festival of corners here? It’s hard to say.

Three of Villa’s six games on the road under Emery have featured at least 12 but the others each had no more than eight. As only three of the Blues’ 13 league games at the Bridge haven’t hit double figures, this match should, so let’s take Paddy’s Over 10.5 Corners option.

Under 3.5 Cards

As well as being mid-table in the league, Chelsea and Villa hold a similar standing for the disciplinary records in their matches. They are above average, though, and there have been at least three bookings in the last seven league clashes too.

On the other hand, referee Andy Madley is the most card averse whistler currently plying his trade in the Premier League. With him at the helm, there should be Under 3.5 Cards on Saturday night.

Chelsea v Aston Villa Betting Tips

BET BUILDER

Double Chance: Aston Villa and Draw
Both Teams to Score
Ollie Watkins To Score or Assist
Over 10.5 Corners
Under 3.5 Cards

A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 34/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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