Nottingham Forest v Newcastle Bet Builder Tips
Newcastle to Win
Under 2.5 Goals
Over 11.5 Corners
Nottingham Forest: Over 2.5 Cards
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Nottingham Forest v Newcastle (8pm)
TV: Sky Sports Premier League
Newcastle to Win
The Premier League weekend gets underway with a battle between two teams who desperately need the points, for very different reasons, but who are both woefully out of form.
Nottingham Forest, who are joint-third favourites in the relegation market, are just two points outside the drop zone and only Crystal Palace are currently on a longer run without victory.
Newcastle have different priorities but with a similar problem. Eddie Howe’s side are joint-second in the top four finish market – don’t panic, you can’t bet on Arsenal or Manchester City – and are four points adrift of Champions League qualification with two matches in hand. But while they beat Wolves last weekend, the Magpies are also at the wrong end of the six-game form table.
They have also won none of their last four league games on the road and lost the Carabao Cup final in that run too. Without home comforts, Newcastle have been struggling. They’re hot favourites to win here though.
It’s easy to see through the Forest for the reason why. Steve Cooper’s boys have taken 20 points at the City Ground this season, yet the underlying data implies 11 points (with only two victories) would be a fairer total.
They’ve also struggled against the better teams in the Premier League. There’s no shame in that for a newly promoted club, even one which has bought more players than you can name this season. But the fact remains they have taken one point from seven matches against the top five sides in the division, and that against Manchester City when the defending champions ‘won’ 3.3-0.9 on expected goals.
Newcastle have overachieved on the road themselves, in fairness. But they are unbeaten against the teams from seventh down home or away and won 2-0 when these teams clashed on the opening weekend of the season.
That only three Forest players started that game and at Tottenham last Saturday tells its own tale of how their squad has rapidly evolved in the last six months. But they could field any combination of their 728 players here and Newcastle should win regardless.
Under 2.5 Goals
While these teams might be at opposite ends of the league table, they’re both at the wrong end of the ‘over 2.5 goals’ and ‘both teams to score’ charts this season.
A lot of it comes down to Cooper and Howe relying upon defence. No team has a higher percentage of clean sheet matches than Newcastle this term, while five of Forest’s six victories have been secured with a 1-0 result. The other was 2-0, a ferocious goal fest by comparison.
Having won 4-1 at Southampton and 3-0 at Leicester, it’s possible the Magpies could rattle in a few here, it just doesn’t feel very likely with the team struggling in front of goal of late. As such, settle down for a bit of a snooze and select Under 2.5 Goals for your Bet Builder.
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Over 11.5 Corners
Newcastle’s games saw the fewest corners in the Premier League last season, yet now they top the rankings for 2022/23. It’s remarkable what a little Saudi investment can achieve, isn’t it?
Only one of their 10 league matches since the World Cup hasn’t hit double figures for corners, and all-but-two of their games on the road this term have too.
At the City Ground, the assistant referees have been kept far less busy in their quadrant monitoring duties. However, the last two league games there to feature at least 10 corners were the visits of Liverpool and City, with those teams hitting the mark themselves.
Assuming Newcastle do likewise or get close, we should be safe with over 11.5 corners here.
Nottingham Forest: Over 2.5 Cards
These teams might disagree in the corner market, but both have seen an average of 3.9 yellow cards in their games this season.
No team has been booked more times in front of their own fans than Forest either, with Cooper’s men collecting at least one yellow in every league match at the City Ground, and 2.5 on average.
They earned three in the reverse fixture too, so there should be a few cards here. Referee Paul Tierney is above par for booking players, averaging 3.3 per game, so there’s every chance Forest will collect over 2.5 yellow cards against the Magpies.
Nottingham Forest v Newcastle Betting Tips
BET BUILDER
Newcastle to Win
Under 2.5 Goals
Over 11.5 Corners
Nottingham Forest: Over 2.5 Cards
A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 24/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
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