Football Tips: Bailey’s the boss in this Aston Villa v Leeds 21/1 Bet Builder

Our in-form tipster Andrew Beasley fancies the hosts to get the job done.

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Aston Villa v Leeds Bet Builder Tips

Aston Villa to Win
Over 2.5 Goals
Leon Bailey to Score or Assist
Over 11.5 Corners
Over 3.5 Cards

*A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 23/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

Aston Villa v Leeds United, Friday: 8pm
TV: Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Premier League

Andrew Beasley landed a 21/1 Bet Builder win on Liverpool v Brentford in his last Premier League betting preview, and he’s back for another winner in the Friday Night Football from Villa Park…

Aston Villa to win

This is a match-up which has strongly favoured away sides in recent years. Villa haven’t lost any of their last five visits to Elland Road, while Leeds have only been beaten once in their last quintet of trips to this particular corner of the west Midlands. 

Perhaps most interestingly, the visitors have scored three times in each of their last three away games at Villa. The big problem here is that Jesse Marsch’s side are so difficult to predict. Their last eight matches include 2-2 draws with Cardiff and West Ham, a win at Liverpool, as well as a victory (against Bournemouth) and a loss (at Tottenham) by 4-3 score lines. 

That makes it look like goals aplenty are likely here but they’ve also drawn 0-0 at Newcastle and lost 1-0 at Wolves in this period. They are erratic personified.

There is one fairly consistent theme though: Leeds have trailed in six of their last eight matches (and 10 of the last 12). If Aston Villa get ahead, their record suggests they can see the match out. They have won six of the seven Premier League games in which they’ve led this season, with only five teams in the division – all of them from the ‘big six’ – having better records in such matches.

With Leeds prone to going behind and Villa capable of defending leads, the home win looks likely here.

Over 2.5 goals

The Whites’ recent record clearly implies that both teams will score. That has been the outcome in four of Unai Emery’s five Premier League matches with Villa, as well as in their two cup exits on his watch. 

If you look at the proportion of their league matches this season which have had at least three goals, the figures are identical to those for both teams scoring. The key from our point of view is that over 2.5 goals has the better odds, so we’ll take that please, Paddy.

To Score Or Assist: Leon Bailey

Leon Bailey has been an ever-present for Villa since the World Cup but hasn’t scored or assisted a goal in his four appearances. He’s come pretty close, though, with two clear cut chances. 

It leaves only Darwin Nunez who is more due a goal in the Premier League and lord knows when that drought will end. Bailey can score here and we’ll add that he might get an assist to increase our chances of a winner. 

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Corners: Over 11.5

Villa are not a team who care for corners, and they dislike them even more now Stevenage knocked them out of the FA Cup from one last weekend. Only two teams in the Premier League have averaged a lower total in their games, with the Villans having seen 9.4 per game so far this season. However, it’s worth noting that three of their five home games against their fellow ‘other 14’ (rather than ‘big six’) teams have featured at least 13 corners this season. 

Leeds last four on the road have all seen 11-or-more and there were exactly that many when these teams met at Elland Road in October. The four clashes in the previous two seasons averaged 12 as well, suggesting these normally corner-averse sides bring them out of each other, so let’s take the over 11.5 option.

Cards: Over 3.5

As well as being corner-heavy, the meetings of Villa and Leeds have tended to feature plenty of bookings too. Since the beginning of the 2020/21 season, when the latter were first promoted, there has been an average of 5.6 cards in matches between these clubs, and never fewer than four. 

In two of the last three there has been a sending off, with Ezri Konsa seeing red in the corresponding fixture in 2021/22 while Luis Sinisterra was dismissed earlier this season. Even with Michael Oliver, who tends to keep his cards in his pocket, in charge, over 3.5 cards looks inevitable.

Aston Villa v Leeds Betting Tips

Aston Villa to Win
Over 2.5 Goals
Leon Bailey to Score or Assist
Over 11.5 Corners
Over 3.5 Cards

*A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 23/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

*All odds correct at time of publication but subject to change. A previous version of this piece linked to Total Home Corners market rather than Total Corners and has been corrected.

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