Leeds v Manchester City betting tips
Manchester City (-1)
Over 3.5 Goals
Under 2.5 Leeds Corners
Over 4.5 cards
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WHEN: December 28, 8pm – Leeds v Manchester City
TV: Amazon Prime
Manchester City (-1)
The final game of the first post-World Cup Premier League match week sees two teams looking to bounce back from one goal defeats. Wait, what? Oh yeah, Manchester City were beaten 2-1 at home by Brentford the last time they were in league action, weren’t they? Man, it’s been a while.
They have played far more recently, though, having faced Liverpool in the Carabao Cup on Thursday. Big Erling Haaland and the boys claimed a 3-2 win and their first victory against the Reds in 2022 at the fifth time of asking.
As for Leeds, their form prior to the shut down was just downright weird. They finished with a 4-3 loss which came on the back of a 4-3 win. That those games were against Tottenham and Bournemouth respectively explains quite a bit, but the fact the latter were 3-1 up at Elland Road does not bode well ahead of the visit of the defending champions.
Jesse Marsch’s boys do have a couple of things in their favour, though. For one thing, they didn’t have to go toe-to-toe with a major rival last week like City did. But the champions’ players’ exertions at the World Cup could be of far greater significance here. Sixteen members of Pep Guardiola’s squad made an appearance in Qatar, with their combined total of 4,624 minutes the most of all 254 clubs who had players there.
By contrast, just three Leeds men showed their face at the tournament, so Marsch will have had plenty of time to work with most of his key men. Friendly wins against Elche and Real Sociedad perhaps helped their confidence but losing 4-2 to Monaco last week might have undermined it. As well as ending Liverpool’s interest in the League Cup, City recently beat Girona 2-0 in a warm up game, but as they also own the Spanish club does that count for much? Either way, they should have enough in the tank to beat Leeds by two and overcome the City (-1) handicap.
Over 3.5 Goals
Manchester City were the Premier League’s great entertainers in the first section of 2022/23, with their total goals average of 3.86 per match the highest in the division. They have been consistent in this regard too, with only Fulham playing more matches in which there were at least three goals. However, their four exceptions to this all occurred on the road, and in three of their last four trips away from the Etihad Stadium, too.
It will suit Leeds to keep this game tight if they can. They will likely look to hit City on the counter or from a set piece, two types of goals for which they are in the top seven teams in the division this season .Can the home side keep City relatively quiet though? As they beat them 7-0 and 4-0 last season, it’s reasonable to assume not. Leeds may well score but that will only help push the total goal meter to Over 3.5.
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Under 2.5 Leeds Corners
Marsch’s men might struggle to score from a set play situation here though. There were seven games in the pre-World Cup portion of the 2022/23 Premier League season which featured a maximum of five corners, and City were the away team for two of them.
They dominate proceedings to such an extent that they only gave away 30 corners in their first 14 games, and no home side who has hosted them has mustered more than five.
Leeds had seven when City came calling in 2020 but having so many against Pep Guardiola’s guys is very rare.
As West Ham and Aston Villa mustered just one apiece when hosting City earlier this season, take Leeds to have Under 2.5 Corners here.
Over 4.5 cards
Last season Leeds became the first team to breach the 100 yellow card mark in a single Premier League campaign. Although things have calmed down in 2022/23, they’ve still had Luis Sinisterra and Tyler Adams sent off this term, with the latter missing this game as a result of his red at Tottenham last time out.
Both Leeds and City picked up two yellows in this fixture last season. With Stuart Attwell (one of the most card friendly refs currently operating in the top flight) at the helm and the home side likely chasing shadows for much of the match, a similar outcome should occur once again. Factor in a lively Elland Road crowd baying for blood and we should be good for Over 4.5 Cards.
Leeds v Manchester City Bet Builder tips
Manchester City (-1)
Over 3.5 Goals
Under 2.5 Leeds Corners
Over 4.5 cards
*A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 31/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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