Boxing Day Bet Builder Tips:
3pm: Crystal Palace vs. Fulham: Over 2.5 Goals
3pm: Everton vs. Wolves: Double Chance – Wolves and Draw
3pm: Leicester vs. Newcastle: Newcastle to Win, Both Teams to Score: No
3pm: Southampton vs. Brighton: Over 2.5 Goals
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WHEN: December 26, 3pm
TV: Amazon Prime (All Matches)
OVER 2.5 GOALS
Our first match is a London derby at Selhurst Park. These teams are level on points, with Fulham having the better goal difference by one but Crystal Palace having a game in hand. Their records for expected goals are very similar too.
Another way in which these teams are alike is the number of goals in their games. Palace are the favourites here, and four of their five victories so far this season have seen both teams score and at least three goals.
A 0-0 at Wolves aside, Fulham’s record on the road has followed similar lines. They won 3-2 at both Leeds and Nottingham Forest, while their four losses have all been by two or three goals to one.
As the odds are better for over 2.5 goals than they are for both teams to score, at the time of writing, we’ll make that our first selection.
DOUBLE CHANCE: WOLVES AND DRAW
This may seem an odd suggestion to be the game of the weekend, but as a relegation six pointer it is perhaps the most important.
Wolves are bottom of the table with 10 points while Everton have 14 and are three places better off. These clubs have won five games between them this season, and four of them have come against sides currently in the bottom five. You get the idea; these are two bad teams which makes this a vital fixture.
So, welcome to the Premier League, Julen Lopetegui. The Europa League winning manager has got a real job on here. He started with a League Cup match against Gillingham on Tuesday (oh, the glamour) but his main task starts at Goodison Park.
The numbers think he has a much better chance of a debut win than Paddy does. While nobody can say Wolves have been great this season, they’ve created far more chances than they’ve scored goals, and Everton will be without on-loan Conor Coady who has been important for them defensively this term. It feels too bold to go for an away win but a double chance of that outcome or a draw looks good value.
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NEWCASTLE TO WIN
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE: NO
We will have to see if the five weeks break for the World Cup has destroyed the form book or not. What we do know is that Leicester and Newcastle were the third and second best teams respectively in the Premier League across the last six match weeks.
They were both in Carabao Cup action on Tuesday, and both won to nil in matches in which they would have expected to triumph. Thanks a lot, guys, that doesn’t help us pick a winner here.
The last three meetings in the east Midlands have been goal heavy, with a total of 15 scored and no fewer than four in each match. Times have changed, though, and Newcastle now have the best defensive record in the Premier League. Their goals against record has been sports washed beyond all recognition so back them to win this match without conceding.
OVER 2.5 GOALS
Southampton have been the division’s worst home team so far this season but this is the St Marys league debut for new manager Nathan Jones. This will be a much sterner challenge than facing Lincoln, who visited in the EFL Cup on Tuesday. Though Jones’ side prevailed against the Imps, they had to come from behind to do so.
The Saints have at least had an extra day to prepare for this than Brighton, who played at Charlton on Wednesday. History suggests they’ll need whatever advantage they can get, as the Seagulls haven’t lost any of their last five trips to Southampton, albeit four of them have ended all-square.
While the visitors are rightly favourites, and if anything should be even shorter priced, the expected goal data for 2022/23 rates this game as the best bet for over 2.5 goals this match week.
It has paid out in three of the last four meetings and had come in by half time when they last clashed, back in April. A south coast goal fest will round off our Bet Builder nicely.
Bet Builder Tips:
Crystal Palace vs. Fulham: Over 2.5 Goals
Everton vs. Wolves: Double Chance – Wolves and Draw
Leicester vs. Newcastle: Newcastle to Win, Both Teams to Score: No
Southampton vs. Brighton: Over 2.5 Goals
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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