Handicap Betting: Arsenal -2
Over 3.5 Goals
Gabriel Jesus to have 3+ Shots on Target
Under 10.5 Corners
Under 2.5 Cards
A Bet Builder using these selections pays at approximately 15/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Sunday October 30: 2pm – Arsenal v Nottingham Forest
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Handicap betting: Arsenal (-2)
The visitors have beaten Arsenal already this year too, in an FA Cup tie back in January. But as recent as that was, it’s largely irrelevant when only three players started both that game and the victory over Liverpool.
The last meeting in north London was three years ago and ended 5-0 to the Gunners. It might be less relevant than the clash at the start of 2022 but the outcome is likely to be similar this week.
Arsenal have won their last eight league games at the Emirates, stretching back into last season, and the expected goal data from the matches implies they deserved seven of them too. Even more pertinent is the fact Mikel Arteta’s side have dominated the xG in all 17 of their home games against non-big six clubs since the start of last season, by an average of 1.9 per match.
And though Steve Cooper’s team aren’t the worst away from home in the Premier League – either in reality or on the far more important xG table – they don’t look capable of ending the Gunners’ run of home wins here. Forest were outshot 19-3 by Brighton in their previous away game, and assuming Arsenal do something similar they should win by at least three goals.
Over 3.5 goals
It may not be a straightforward 3-0 win to topple the handicap either. The Gunners’ five home league matches in 2022/23 have averaged 4.2 goals each, second only to Manchester City for the most in the division.
City lead the way in part thanks to their 6-0 win over Forest, and the visitors have lost 4-0 at Leicester too. They have tightened up since but a similar score line remains very possible.
We shouldn’t rule them out of scoring either. Last season’s play-off champs might have drawn a blank in five of their six away games, but they’ve generated at least one expected goal in half of them and 5.2 xG in total.
There’s an average of three games a week which pay out on over 3.5 goals in the Premier League, and this is one of the prime candidates this weekend.
Player To Have 3 Or More Shots On Target: Gabriel Jesus
Assuming Arsenal record a big win, Gabriel Jesus should be at the heart of it. He leads the Premier League for shots on target at home this season, with an average of 2.5 per 90 minutes.
More specifically, the Brazilian has recorded three in three of the Gunners’ five league games at the Emirates, and also against PSV Eindhoven in the Europa League. With Forest having conceded the most shots on target in the division, Jesus should have three on Sunday.
Corners: Under 10.5
If Forest are to get a result, they need to keep Arsenal’s set piece opportunities to a minimum. Only two teams in the top flight have scored more goals from set plays this season, while the visitors have conceded the joint-most from them. The game against Liverpool proved the point in a way, as three of the Reds’ four clear-cut chances came from dead ball situations.
The good news for Cooper is that the Gunners have generated relatively few corners. The Forest boss won’t be expecting his team to score from one, as corners is another table for which they are at the bottom.
In short, bet low on corners. Under 10.5 should do nicely.
Cards: Under 2.5
The assistant referees won’t be pointing their flags towards the corner quadrant too often and main man Simon Hooper won’t be reaching for his notebook frequently either.
Only one of the current Premier League referees with at least as many games as him issues fewer yellow cards per game. He’s flashed no more than two yellow cards in three of his last five matches and the same should occur here.
Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest Bet Builder
Handicap Betting: Arsenal -2
Over 3.5 Goals
Gabriel Jesus to have 3+ Shots on Target
Under 10.5 Corners
Under 2.5 Cards
A Bet Builder using these selections pays at approximately 15/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
READ MORE
- Crouchy’s Shouts: Liverpool can overrun Leeds on Saturday night
- Bet Builder Stats: Our detailed Premier League stat packs for this weekend’s games
- Premier League Predictions: Lawro’s verdict on Man Utd, Arsenal, Liverpool & more
- Premier League Betting Tips: Paddy Power pundits’ best bets for this weekend’s fixtures
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