Bet Builder Tips: Leeds to edge past Aston Villa in our 22/1 Sunday punt

Our tipster Andrew Beasley shakes down Sunday's second match.

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Leeds to Win
Under 2.5 Goals
Leeds To Have 4 Or More Shots On Target
Under 10.5 Corners
Over 3.5 Cards

A Bet Builder using these selections pays at approximately 22/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.

Sunday 4.30pm: Leeds v Aston Villa
TV: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League

Leeds to Win

Despite the most compacted schedule in history thanks to the mid-season World Cup, it’s four weeks since Leeds last played a match while Aston Villa have only had their 1-0 win over Southampton in that time. How the hell are we supposed to predict this one? Paddy doesn’t look sure either judging by the prices for this one.

But this is a fixture which has favoured the visiting team since the Whites were promoted back to the top flight in the summer of 2020. Three of the four meetings ended in wins to nil for the away team, with the other an entertaining 3-3 draw at Villa Park earlier this year.

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Shortly after that game, Steven Gerrard’s side visited Elland Road and won 3-0. While the score line flattered them based on the chances, they did have nine shots on target, one of only eight occasions a side from outside the top six managed that away from home in 2021/22.

But while they deserved that win, Villa’s attack has dried up since. Going into the weekend, only Bournemouth are below them in the Premier League for both expected goals and shots, and you can only add Nottingham Forest underneath them when it comes to efforts on target.

While Leeds are ‘only’ mid-table for those stats, they’re ahead of the likes of Chelsea. That’s not a bad place to start, even if the Blues have recently fired their manager, and certainly the kind of position in which Villa would prefer to be. But the numbers suggest Jesse Marsch can outwit Stevie G, even from the stands following his suspension, so back Leeds to win this one.

Under 2.5 Goals

Most people will tell you to ignore whatever happens in pre-season (unless you’re looking for a sweet Darwin Nunez miss to share on social media) and they’re probably right. However, these teams met in a friendly in July, with Aston Villa winning 1-0. While we’re expecting the opposite outcome this time, another game of few goals looks likely.

That’s because while they don’t create too much, neither do they allow a host of high value chances either. If you’re a weirdo who enjoys matches with little goal mouth action, West Ham v Wolves is your best bet for this weekend, but this fixture wouldn’t be far behind.

Only two players on either side have scored more than once in the league this season, and one of them (Rodrigo) will be returning from injury at best and may not feature. Goals will be at a premium and there should be Under 2.5 Goals on Sunday.

Leeds To Have 4 Or More Shots On Target

But this is not to say that Emi Martinez will not be kept busy. Only seven teams in the Premier League are averaging more shots on target per game than Marsch’s men, and they have been consistent with them too.

Leeds have had at least four attempts on target in five of their six matches. Against a team like Villa they can hit that mark once again with Leeds to Have 4 or More Shots on Target.

Under 10.5 Corners

In the previous three seasons, only 37 Premier League matches saw more corners than the 17 which occurred when these sides met in February. Apologies for telling you something you obviously know, but it bears repeating.

Except that it was an exception rather than the norm. Both Leeds and Aston Villa have averaged fewer than 10 total corners per match so far this season, and 10 of their combined 13 games have paid out on Under 10.5 Corners. We’ll assume this match will do likewise.

Over 3.5 Cards

If the corner fest these teams served up recently was uncommonly high, the eight bookings dished out in their last meeting is even rarer in Premier League circles. It helped these teams become the top two in the division for total cards per game last season.

And while they have dipped below four since 2022/23 got underway, they’re both averaging over 3.5 cards per match this term. Match referee Stuart Attwell should ensure they maintain their form. Among the top flight’s regular refs, he’s the leading man for bookings. Over 3.5 Cards looks guaranteed.

Leeds v Aston Villa Betting

Leeds to Win
Under 2.5 Goals
Leeds To Have 4 Or More Shots On Target
Under 10.5 Corners
Over 3.5 Cards

A Bet Builder using these selections pays at approximately 22/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.

All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

Fancy making your own Bet Builder for this match? You’ll want to check out our in-depth stat packs!

 

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