Ukraine to Win
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 10.5 Corners
Over 3.5 Cards
*A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 24/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Wednesday 7.45pm: Scotland vs Ukraine
TV: Premier Sports
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Scotland and Ukraine will soon loathe the sight of each other. They meet at Hampden Park on Wednesday night, square off again in Poland the following Tuesday, and had the small matter of a World Cup qualification play-off game just a few months ago in June.
With the 2022/23 season only just getting under way, and a World Cup – which neither of these teams will be attending – on the horizon, it’s hard to be too enthused about the UEFA Nations League at this moment in time.
However, these teams are the top two in Group B1 (with six and seven points respectively), so their head-to-head will likely determine which nation is promoted to League A. The way things are going for England, the successful team might pass them on their way down, which is all the motivation the Scots will need to take this seriously.
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Match Odds: Ukraine
Ukraine will just be grateful to be able to play more matches, of course. With the war in their country it’s remarkable for them to take the field at all, yet their record across their five games in June was very impressive. Oleksandr Petrakov’s side won three and drew one of their fixtures that month. It was unfortunate that the only defeat came to Wales in the final play-off match for Qatar, but even then, they only lost 1-0 and that was thanks to an own goal.
With Scotland having been beaten 3-1 in the last meeting, as well as losing 3-0 away to Ireland over the summer, it’s surprising to see they are favourites for this match, even with home advantage. Although the shot count was close when these teams last met, Ukraine led 8-4 for shots on target and even more importantly, 6-1 for clear-cut chances.
It’s hard to get detailed data for international football but that last stat tells you the Ukrainian victory was fully merited. With Petrakov able to select nine of the XI who started that match at Hampden, a bet on Ukraine to win looks a good value selection.
Over/Under Goals Markets: Over 2.5
Paddy’s odds in the Over/Under Goals markets show he’s expecting two to be scored in this match. As that has been the most which have occurred in three of Ukraine’s last four games, it looks reasonable enough.
However, it’s rare for Scotland not to give up a couple of very high-quality chances when they play, and they’ve also conceded 5.5 shots on target per match in 2022. The Ukrainians could easily score a couple based on those numbers, but they will also be without their preferred goalkeeper, Dynamo Kyiv’s Heorhii Bushchan, which may increase the home side’s likelihood of finding the net too.
Paddy will probably be right – he usually is – but Over 2.5 goals doesn’t seem unreasonable (and it has paid out in four of Scotland’s last five matches) so we’ll take that and party.
Corners: Over 10.5
As well as goals there have been plenty of corners in the Scots’ recent matches too. An average of 11 across the last 10, in fact. This includes the 11 that occurred when Ukraine last came calling. The visitors’ last two games featured just five between them but that is unusually low and is unlikely to be repeated here. The wider form book suggests over 10.5 corners looks like a safe bet.
Cards: Over 3.5 Cards
Steven ‘Elvis’ Pressley was sent off when these teams met in 2006, which I’m sure you’ll agree will be hugely relevant here. Hey, it was the third last meeting of the teams so in that sense it’s indeed recent. More pertinent is that there were five yellow cards shown in their clash in June, which is fairly standard for these sides – their other matches that month averaged over 4.5 cards in total, and Scotland’s last game saw a pair of reds too.
To spice things up further, Italian referee Maurizio Mariani has gotten the nod for this one. He loves nothing more than booking players, averaging 4.6 cards per game across his career and slightly more in his limited experience of international football. As such, add over 3.5 cards to your Bet Builder and thank me after the match.
Scotland v Ukraine Betting Tips
Ukraine to Win
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 10.5 Corners
Over 3.5 Cards
*A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 24/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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