*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
Chelsea to win
Both teams to Score: No
Leeds Under 3.5 Corners
Chelsea Over 5.5 Corners
Over 4.5 cards
*A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 26/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
“I think we’ve got our football back, as I would enjoy football. Men at it, blow for blow, and the referee letting them get on with it.”
So said Graeme Souness after Chelsea’s 2-2 draw with Tottenham Hotspur last weekend, a match which featured hair pulling in the penalty box and childish histrionics in the dugouts. Good old men, eh?
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The 1970 FA Cup final replay between Leeds and Chelsea is likely Souness’ favourite match of all time. Even 25 years ago a Premier League ref said he’d have sent off six players and shown 20 yellow cards, so there would probably be a government enquiry if it occurred today. The teams and their fans have hated each other ever since, so Sky Sports could have another feisty Sunday afternoon encounter on their hands this week.
Sunday 2pm: Leeds United v Chelsea
TV: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League
Chelsea to win
Leeds have had an encouraging start to 2022/23. They earned four points from two matches and having been 2-0 up at Southampton last time out, they should really have won both games. Jesse Marsch’s side go into this game ahead of Chelsea in the table on goals scored too, for all that is worth this early in the campaign.
While the American appears to have steadied the Leeds ship since the Marcelo Bielsa era ended in a run of heavy defeats, the fact remains the Whites have rarely shown they can compete too well with the top clubs. Leeds picked up two wins against the big six in their first season back in the top flight but lost all 12 games last season with an aggregate goal difference of -39.
That torrid run included a 3-0 loss to Chelsea in their penultimate match at Elland Road in 2021/22. The visitors were aided by Daniel James’ first half red card, but already had the lead when he was dismissed.
Tommy Tuchel’s boys are favourites and the underlying data from last season suggests their price should be even shorter. They won nine of their 10 away games against bottom half teams last season so look well set for three points here.
Both teams to Score: No
Chelsea had the joint-best defensive record in Premier League away games last season, conceding only 11 goals in their 19 matches. They were second top for this stat in the Tuchel portion of 2020/21 and kept a clean sheet at Everton in their opening fixture of this campaign.
In short, in 29 away league matches under the German, the Blues have conceded just 17 goals. Solid as a rock.
Patrick Bamford went off injured in the first half of Leeds’ last match and is a doubt for this one. But even if he is available, it’s hard to see Marsch’s men scoring. In their four home games against the top four last season, the Whites lost the lot to nil and had few chances of note.
Paddy expects both teams to score so betting ‘no’ in that market offers a little slice of value.
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Corners: Home Under 3.5, Away Over 5.5
When these sides last met, Leeds had just one corner, their joint-fewest in a home league match last season. An extreme example that might have been, but they only had two in the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge and were only 12 above having the lowest total in the Premier League.
Chelsea, by contrast, love a corner. Well, not when it’s headed into their net by Harry Kane for a 96th minute equaliser, but any at the other end are alright.
The Blues had 16 at Everton two weeks ago, a total only matched once by an away team across the previous three top flight seasons. Another extreme case, perhaps, but Chelsea did have the third most corners in the 2021/22 Premier League.
So, rather than looking at total corners, we’ll select under 3.5 for Leeds and over 5.5 for Chelsea.
Over 4.5 cards
The home side might have struggled against relegation last season but they did top one table: yellow cards. They became the first English team to ever collect 100 of them in a single top flight campaign. You know that Vince McMahon meme? It’s easy to picture a version with Souness when it comes to Leeds’ disciplinary record as it gets worse and worse.
With five from their two games so far this term, they have the same total as Chelsea. There’s no love lost between the sides and match referee Stuart Attwell is the Premier League’s most card friendly official now that Mike Dean has retired. With that in mind, we’ll assume this will be booking-heavy and take the over 4.5 cards.
Leeds v Chelsea Bet Builder Tips
Chelsea to win
Both teams to Score: No
Leeds Under 3.5 Corners
Chelsea Over 5.5 Corners
Over 4.5 cards
*A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 26/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
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