Aston Villa (-1)
Over 2.5 Goals
Under 10.5 Corners
Over 4.5 Cards
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Saturday 12.30pm: Aston Villa v Everton
TV: BT Sport
Aston Villa (-1)
Is the second week of the season far too early to label a match as ‘must win’ for both sides? Almost certainly, but if there ever was a legitimate candidate, this could be it.
The opening game of the weekend sees a battle between sides who are managed by Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard, one-time international teammates who struggled to play in the same team. Everyone could see it, aside from whoever was in charge of England at the time.
The pressure will be on both. Losing to newly promoted Bournemouth last weekend was obviously not the start for which the Villa faithful were looking. Although they outshot the Cherries 15-7, most of their efforts were from long range and Bournemouth had more attempts from within the box. Everton will no doubt look to restrict them in similar fashion.
Unfortunately for the Toffees, they have a poor record on the road in the last year and they haven’t had much joy at Villa Park since the home side were last promoted either. No team in the Premier League won fewer away games last season, and they were beaten 3-0 in the corresponding fixture 11 months ago.
While that score line flattered Villa a little, it’s hard to know where Everton’s goals are likely to come from. Richarlison is now with Spurs and Dominic Calvert-Lewin is injured. The team Lampard fielded against Chelsea last weekend was more wingers than anything else and the players available only averaged a goal every five matches at best last season.
Villa desperately need to improve and are unlikely to be particularly great in this match. Everton’s injury hit defence should help them and they can keep the Blues at bay to secure a two-goal win to take care of Aston Villa (-1) in the handicap markets.
Over 2.5 Goals
Paddy is not expecting many goals here, and with Everton’s attack it’s easy to see why. However, only five teams in the Premier League played more matches in which there were at least three goals than Villa in 2021/22 while Everton were fifth in the chart for away games only.
As well as their 3-0 win in this fixture last season, the Villans also had a 4-0 win over Southampton and a 3-3 draw with Leeds at Villa Park, and they were the teams who finished either side of Everton. Six of the Blues’ nine away games against other bottom half sides paid out on Over 2.5 Goals last term and this match will too.
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Under 10.5 Corners
Gerrard and Lampard will have scored plenty of goals from corners over the years and probably picked up some assists too. Their teams didn’t have too many of them last season, though, and this was particularly true for Everton (who only had two more than bottom club in the corner table, Brentford).
The last five meetings of these teams have all featured between nine and 11 corners, which makes picking a line difficult. As they had nine between them last weekend, we’ll take the Under 10.5 Corners.
Over 4.5 Cards
The last meeting of these teams, which Villa won 1-0 at Goodison Park in January, was a feisty affair. There were nine yellow cards shown, a total matched by only three other Premier League games last season.
It’s too soon to draw conclusions for 2022/23, but these teams were involved in two of the three games last weekend which saw at least five cards too. With their matches featuring an average of 4.2 and 3.8 yellow cards respectively last term, we should go high or go home.
The one potential issue is Michael Oliver, a below average ref when it comes to handing out cards. But with both teams desperate for a win and carrying a history of bookings, the decent price for Over 4.5 Cards is too good to resist.
Aston Villa v Everton tips
Aston Villa (-1)
Over 2.5 Goals
Under 10.5 Corners
Over 4.5 Cards
*A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 24/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
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