Football Tips: 5 best bets from the relegation battle as Leeds and Burnley face final day drama

Our tipster Shane O'Brien picks his punts for Sunday's race against the drop.


*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

And so, it comes down to this. Leeds and Burnley, level on points, have 90 minutes to secure their Premier League status.

Burnley, who boast a 20-goal superior goal difference and play at home on the final day of the season, are in the stronger position, but there are bound to be plenty of twists and turns before the season draws to a close on Sunday evening.

Everton’s lazarus-like second-half comeback against Crystal Palace on Thursday night has deprived viewers of a three-way relegation dogfight on the final day, but there still should be plenty of drama at Turf Moor and the Brentford Community Stadium.


Sunday, May 22: 4pm
Brentford v Leeds – live on Sky Sports Football
Burnley v Newcastle 

The Clarets and Leeds face two of the most in-form sides in the Premier League, although neither Newcastle or Brentford have anything to play for.

Eddie Howe’s Toon Army, who travel to Turf Moor, have won five of their last seven games, while Brentford, who host Leeds, have taken 22 points from their last 10 games.

Both sets of fans will have to hope their opponents are mentally on the beach come the 4pm kick-offs on Sunday. So, without further ado, here are some markets that caught our interest ahead of D-Day in the relegation scrap.

Leeds to be winning at half-time

Is a final-day relegation dogfight even a relegation dogfight if one team doesn’t momentarily leapfrog the other, prompting a cutaway to the other ground and scenes of worried fans in the stadium?

With Burnley in the driving seat, Leeds need to score early to apply the pressure and can do so against a Brentford side that has only been leading at half time in two of their last nine games.

Thomas Frank’s side seem to save their best form for the second half, giving Leeds a chance to strike early on Sunday.

Of course, Leeds have not shown any form at all in recent matches, but this is the time for them to step up.

Brentford to come from behind and draw

As already mentioned, Brentford save their best form for the second period. The Bees would have taken just ten points if their last nine games ended at half time but ended up almost doubling that tally, taking an impressive 19 points in total.

They have also scored five goals in the 85th minute or later in that spell and can demonstrate their powers of recovery if they do fall behind on Sunday.

Joe Gelhardt to score or assist

Leeds would already be relegated if it wasn’t for Joe Gelhardt. The youngster has popped up with crucial injury time interventions in recent weeks, most recently providing a brilliant assist for Pascal Struijk in the 1-1 draw with Brighton last weekend. He also scored a dramatic 95th-minute winner against fellow strugglers Norwich after Leeds had initially conceded an equaliser in extra time.

Gelhardt has scored two and assisted two in just four Premier League starts this season, with the vast majority of his league appearances coming from the bench. However, he can play an important role if Leeds are to beat the drop on Sunday.

Draw half time/Burnley full time

Of course, the Leeds result will be irrelevant if Burnley manage to beat Newcastle at Turf Moor. The Clarets have been in decent form since sacking Sean Dyche, taking an impressive 10 points from six games to move out of the bottom three.

In three of their last four wins, Burnley have come alive after the break, turning a draw into three points against Wolves and turning defeat into victory against both Everton and Watford.

If Thursday’s game at Aston Villa is anything to go by, they are unlikely to risk going behind on Sunday by going all out for a crucial opener and are more likely to try and stay in the game until an opportunity presents itself.

They may find themselves temporarily in the bottom three at the interval on Sunday but should still be a Premier League club by the end of the day.

Under 1.5 goals

Only Norwich have scored fewer goals in the Premier League this season than Burnley. The Clarets have managed just 33 goals in 37 games and have scored one goal or fewer in a staggering 29 games this season.

Two of their seven wins this season have come courtesy of a 1-0 scoreline – the only result to feature more than once in their campaign. Ironically, the reverse fixture back in December saw Newcastle claim their long-awaited first victory of the season courtesy of the same result and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Burnley do the same on Sunday.

The Relegation Battle

Brentford v Leeds tips

Leeds to be winning at half-time
Brentford to come from behind and draw
Joe Gelhardt to score or assist

Burnley v Newcastle tips

Draw half time/Burnley full time
Under 1.5 goals

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change


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