Football Tips: 3 stat-packed best bets for Tuesday’s Inter v AC Milan derby

Our Euro tipster has dug out his fancies from the Coppa Italia semi-final clash.

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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

Tuesday night sees the second leg of the Coppa Italia semi final between Inter and AC Milan taking place and with the sides 0-0 on aggregate an appearance in the final against either Juventus or Fiorentina is on the cards for the winner.

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We’ve gone through the stats and form with great vengeance to find the 3 best bets for what will be a fascinating semi-final. Let’s have a look then at where we’ve found some value in the markets.

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Tuesday 19 April 8pm: Inter Milan v AC Milan
TV: Premier Sports 1

Both Teams to Score

Inter have played a total of seven matches since the first leg of this tie and have gone unbeaten over each of those fixtures, winning five and drawing two. Milan have played less games but are also undefeated over their six, winning four and drawing two. Both sides have obviously been in decent scoring form over those games, the hosts netting 14 with the Rossoneri five.

Looking at previous head-to-head clashes we see that Both Teams to Score has landed in six of the last 10 meetings between these old enemies and has landed in seven of the last 10 where Inter were hosting in the shared stadium. With the away goals rule still standing in the competition a score draw will do for Stefano Pioli’s Milan and with both in good goal-scoring nick we have to start off here with a Both Teams to Score bet.

Inter to Score Over 0.5 first Half Goals

Inter have been very strong this season in the first period of play. Over their 16 home Serie A games so far this season I Nerazzurri have gone into the interval leading a very respectable 10 times, they’ve been level in four and losing in just two. What’s important for us here though is that the hosts have scored 19 goals over those 16 games giving us an average of just shy of 1.20 goals.

Milan, on the other hand, have been leading in seven, drawing in five and losing in four over their 16 away league games and yes, while this is quite obviously a cup game it’s worth mentioning here that the hosts have scored at least one first half goal against Milan in four of their last seven meetings as the ‘home’ side and in four of their last six as both the home and away team. Armed with those stats we’re getting some great value here in backing Inter to score at least once in the opening 45 minutes of play.

Inter to Win the Race to 6 Corners

Another stat that jumped out at us here was Inter’s corner statistics. Over the season so far in both their home and away games Simone Inzaghi’s side have averaged a total of 6.38 corners per games with the Over 8.5 and Over 9.5 total corners landing in 69% and 62% of their games respectively.

Over their home fixtures they’ve a higher average, landing 6.75 corners per game with Over 8.5 and 9.5 total corners standing at 62% and 56%. As mentioned above Milan just need a score draw here to advance to the final so the onus will be on the hosts to stay ahead here and we expect them to attack from the off. We’re looking at a Corner Race bet here and seeing Inter to Win the Race to 6 Corners available at Evens we’re getting some lovely value for a team who already averages higher than that and one that we know for certain will be on the front foot for the match.

Milan derby betting tips

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

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