Football Tips: Paddy trader's 3 Tottenham v Brighton best bets

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Paddy Power’s top football trader Jason Murphy turns his steely gaze towards this weekend’s FA Cup action and he’s aiming for the prime time. It’s Tottenham v Brighton in Jason’s cross hairs and he shakes down this all top-flight contest with some best bets and Bet Builder suggestions.

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It’s a fascinating clash with Brighton being England’s undisputed draw specialists and Spurs ravaged by injuries and absentees. They’re in pretty good form and Jason likes them to win here – but there’s a big if. Let’s see where the smart money’s going in Jason’s Spurs v Brighton tips.

Saturday 8pm: Tottenham v Brighton

TV: ITV4 and ITV Hub

It’s a cup game so normally teams will throw the kitchen sink at it if they’re behind with 20 minutes to go which makes it more likely that they might get a goals so Both Teams to Score is definitely an angle.

Brighton definitely create enough chances, game-to-game, to be scoring two or more every game, whether that’s against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge or whether they’re trying to put teams away at the Amex.

But for this game in particular, I’d be looking to back Tottenham to Win inside 90 minutes at the right price, of course. This is what we always warn our punters. With cup games, team news is absolutely, massively important.

Brighton did take it seriously in the last round against West Brom and they put out a very strong XI so I expect Graham Potter to do likewise this round. Antonio Conte, how seriously will he take the cup?

He wasn’t really posed with that question at home in the last round at home to Morecambe, he could rotate the squad, make changes and still have the international-quality players to get the job done.

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It was interesting in the EFL Cup, the semi finals, the first leg he started with Hugo Lloris in goal which, to me, means he’s taking it seriously. They lost the game 2-0. Lloris didn’t start the second leg or that FA Cup game I referred to.

So, what’s Antonio Conte going to do here? Is it going to be the B Team or are we going to see Lloris? If Lloris starts and you’re getting around 17/20 on Tottenham I’d be happy to side with Spurs to Win inside the 90 minutes.

If Llois doesn’t start, and it’s a shorter price on Spurs to Win, that doesn’t make sense to me and I’d avoid them in that case. I do think Conte will take it seriously but team news is very important.

I’d expect Harry Kane to start to keep him sharp, you can double Spurs to Win and Harry Kane to Score Anytime for a Bet Builder.

If I was sitting down to watch this on Saturday night and was doing a Bet Builder, I’d be looking at Steven Bergwijn to Have 1 or More Shots on Target.

He’s likely to start and after the heroics against Leicester, and given the options that Conte has, I think he’ll be in. If you look at his stats he’s only played about 400 minutes in the league. He’s had 10 appearances but only four starts.

His numbers are pretty good for getting shots on target, he has about 1.5 per 90 minutes he’s played this season. Have a look at Bergwijn to have 1 or More Shots on Target in this one.