*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
Football purists of the world unite, I’ve found the match for you. Forget any FA Cup shocks this weekend, forget AFCON, forget the possible free-scoring feast between Manchester City and Fulham. It is, of course, Burnley v Watford.
Funny phrase, isn’t it, ‘one for the purists?’ Why can’t we just say it was a cr*p. Anyway, this is the Premier League hype machine and while it might not be a thrill a minute, free-flowing feast to make Pep Guardiola weep with pride at what he’s done to the English game, there are some genuinely intriguing elements to consider in this basement battle.
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There’s something about a relegation scrap and it doesn’t get any scrappier than this with 20th hosting 19th in the Premier League. The jeopardy alone gives these matches that kind of car-crash appeal. Look away, I dare you. This titanic tussle sees Burnley unleash their new giant striker against wily old Roy Hodgson and his so-far-hapless Hornets.
You might think this one has 1-0 Burnley courtesy of a Wout Weghorst header written all over it, but let’s take a look and see what we can garner from a deep dive into the minutia. Here’s a Bet Builder for your only slice of Premier League action this weekend before the cavalry arrives for a midweek bonanza.
*A Bet Builder with these four best bets pays at approximately 35/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Saturday 6pm: Burnley v Watford
BT Sport 1 and BT Sport Ultimate
I just can’t see there being loads of goals in this. Hodgson has been brought in to steady this ship and that’s one thing he’s generally excellent at. His Crystal Palace sides were rock solid and, while he has a lot of work to do, we should see immediate improvement on Saturday.
They couldn’t get any worse. They’ve shipped 13 goals in their last five including three against Norwich. No, don’t book an appointment with the opticians, you did read that right – Norwich. They’re going to show very little attacking intent here and their first objective will be getting a clean sheet.
Burnley have scored just three goals in their last seven so this should be low scoring. There is a chance one of our protagonists might bundle one in so I’ve sided with Under 1.5 Goals at a healthy price to keep us in the hunt for at least our money back as a free bet if there is a victor.
However, this The Draw punt is pretty self explanatory given everything I’ve just said above. Burnley just don’t score and Watford will take the point here. Beanpole forward Wout Weghorst will be a threat and he’s got a good scoring record in the Bundesliga, but I don’t think we can expect miracles instantly.
Watford have lost eight of their last nine matches while Burnley are yet to win any of their games over the same period, drawing five of those. I’m not sure they’re going to be able to break down the Hornets now Hodgson’s got hold of them and we could well be in for a 0-0.
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I think Burnley’s new signing is going to be in the thick of it, even if he doesn’t start the match. You can just picture the balls being lobbed into the box as the game goes on the and Dutchman throwing himself about, trying to get his head on anything and everything.
We’re backing Wout Weghorst to Have 2 or More Shots on Saturday. They don’t have to go in, they don’t even have to be on target. We’re just backing the big man to get his massive frame on the ball and direct it vaguely towards the Watford goal as Burnley pile the pressure on late on.
Hodgson will have plenty of decent attacking options at his disposal and I think he’ll like the look of Joao Pedro. With Emmanuel Dennis suspended for this game his Brazilian team mate will have to step up if they’re to get anything out of it.
I think Watford’s chances might largely come from counter attacks and Pedro should be a big part of spearheading that. He’s averaging around 1.2 shots per game, should start, and is a good bet to Have 1 or More Shots on Target in this one.
Burnley v Watford tips
Under 1.5 Goals
Wout Weghorst to Have 2 or More Shots
Joao Pedro to Have 1 or More Shots on Target
*A Bet Builder with these four best bets pays at approximately 35/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP
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* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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