Football Tips: Paddy’s prize pair of best bets for Sunday’s AFCON quarter-finals

Our tipster Paddy Murphy surveys the scene on Sunday.


* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Sunday sees the African Cup of Nations’ final two quarter-finals being decided. First up we have Egypt taking on Morocco with the side playing as the away team being fancied by the market.


Egypt haven’t exactly set the world alight with their form but they’ve been defensively strong and will fancy their chances of a semi-final appearance. In the later game, competition favourites Senegal host Equatorial Guinea who will be aiming to frustrate the odds-on favourites.

3pm: Egypt vs Morocco – Morocco Win and Over 1.5 Goals

TV: Sky Sports Premier League

Egypt’s most recent form has seen them winning two of their last five, drawing two (winning one and losing one on penalties) and losing one. Morocco have won three of their last five fixtures, drawing two (losing one on penalties).

The Moroccans are the favourites here as they’ve had some really incredible form over the last few years. They’ve not lost a game since a 2-3 friendly loss to Gabon in October in 2019, that’s a run of 31 games without defeat and of those 31 games only six ended level.

The Atlas Lions have been decent in front of goal too, scoring at least two goals in eight of their last 10 fixtures. The same, however, cannot be said for the Pharaohs who have only scored two goals over their last six games. Just goes to show you can have arguably the best player in the world in your team and still struggle to hit the target.

Morocco’s form then can’t really be argued with here and, against an Egyptian side who struggle for goals, it’s hard not to see them advancing. That impressive record of scoring at least two per game should be exploited here too so we’re going with the value odds of Morocco to Win and Over 1.5 Goals.

7pm: Senegal vs Equatorial Guinea – Under 0.5 First Half goals

TV: BBC Two, Sky Sports Football, Sky Sports Premier League, BBC iPlayer & website

Competition favourites Senegal made light work of Cape Verde in their Last 16 match but over their Group Stage matches really failed to impress. Over their Group B games they won one and drew two, scoring just a solitary goal and conceded none. They have been enjoying an undefeated run of 10 games though and that is what’s making them favourites here.

Equatorial Guinea are decent though, they finished second in Group E behind Ivory Coast, beating Algeria and Sierra Leone but losing to Ivory Coast in their opening game. They needed penalties to overcome Mali in the Last 16 but prior to their tournament games had been on a run of five without a loss, winning three and drawing two.

Both sides aren’t exactly known for their goal scoring, the Lions of Teranga have netted five over their last five games while the National Lightning only have three over their last five. Interestingly, the team playing as the home side have only scored a First Half goal in one of their last five and the same stat applies to Guinea. With both struggling for goals we’re really liking the price here for Under 0.5 First Half goals.

Sunday’s AFCON tips

3pm: Egypt vs Morocco – Morocco Win and Over 1.5 Goals
7pm: Senegal vs Equatorial Guinea – Under 0.5 First Half goals

*A double with these two best bets pays at approximately 7/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.


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