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“At least it won’t be 5-0 again.” That was the tweeted opinion of a Watford fan ahead of his side’s match against Manchester City in September 2017. City had won by five at Vicarage Road on the final day of the previous season, but they couldn’t repeat that score line, could they?
They could, and with jam on top. Pep Guardiola’s side won that meeting 6-0, which sent the aforementioned tweet viral, and things have only gotten worse in this fixture since.
City won the FA Cup in 2019 by beating the Hornets 6-0 in the final, and they won the two league meetings the following season by an aggregate score line of 12-0.
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Of course, Watford being Watford, they’ve had 73 different managers since then. That reminds me, it’s your turn to take charge of them in mid-January, don’t forget now.
The present incumbent is Claudio Ranieri, who has already had some very up and down results in Hertfordshire. His side have beaten Manchester United, lost narrowly to Chelsea and been thumped hard by Liverpool. But the question here is not whether City will win but by how many goals?
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Man City -2
As City play most like Liverpool of the other three big teams who have visited Vicarage Road on Ranieri’s watch, it’s hard not to think there will be a similar outcome here.
Granted, the Citizens haven’t looked quite as devastating as the Reds in 2021/22, but they’re obviously capable of giving a team a hiding on any given Sunday (or Saturday evening).
There’s clearly something about yellow shirts which gets them all worked up too. City beat Norwich 5-0 earlier this season and for the sake of any Watford fans reading we don’t need to go over the Hornets’ record against the defending champions again.
Guardiola’s boys have a Champions League match after this but as it’s a dead rubber they can focus their energies here and overcome the handicap to win by at least three goals.
Both Teams to Score
A bet on both teams scoring would require City to get four but as they’ve hit Watford for double that in the past that shouldn’t present them with too much difficulty.
And despite their erratic form, the Hornets have had some big scoring matches in recent weeks. Indeed, since Ranieri was appointed, only four teams in the division have scored more goals than Watford.
With City’s only recent clean sheets coming against dross like Everton and Manchester United, there’s every chance the home side can give their supporters at least one thing to cheer about by scoring a goal.
Gabriel Jesus to Score Anytime
It can often be near impossible to predict who Guardiola will select for his starting XI, such are the riches at his disposal.
But the small violins came out earlier this week when he complained of “an emergency in the squad,” adding that “we never complain when it is not possible for players to play for injuries.” Right you are, Pep.
City also famously do not have a centre forward at their disposal, so for our goal scorer bet we’ll have to go for Gabriel Jesus, the centre forward who happens to play on the wing.
The Brazilian has taken 11 shots across the last four match weeks, the most of any player in the Premier League who hasn’t scored in that period. With plenty of goals to be shared around at Watford, Jesus should be able to snaffle one of them.
Bookings Odds: Over 30 Points
Watford won’t be pleased to see that Kevin ‘Ain’t No’ Friend ‘Of Mine’ has been appointed as the ref for this one, as he sent off Juraj Kucka in their recent defeat at Arsenal.
But they shouldn’t take it personally as Friend has been giving out cards to just about everybody this season. He must be a nightmare at Christmas.
The Bookings Odds line for this match has been set at 30 points, where each yellow is worth 10 and a red is 25. Our friend Friend’s average for the season is a whopping 67 points per match, and the average seen at Vicarage Road in 2021/22 is 48.
With records like these and Watford likely to be given a run around by City, we simply have to take the Over 30 Points option here.
Watford v Man City betting tips:
Man City -2
Both Teams to Score
Gabriel Jesus to Score Anytime
Bookings Odds: Over 30 Points
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Saturday football tips
- Thommo: Phil’s Watford v Man City Tips with 6/1 selection
- Thommo Turbo Treble: Phil Thompson’s 8/1 Saturday 3pm Premier League tips
- West Ham v Chelsea Tips: 7/1 punt among Thommo’s 4 best
- Football Accumulator Tips: Our stylish 26/1 Saturday night selections
Sunday football tips
Premier League Tips: Tasty 11/1 treble for Sunday’s 2pm games
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