Football Accumulator tips: We’re hunting for goals in this 10/1 BTTS acca for Saturday’s 3pms

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

There was a time when I felt a bit withered after international breaks. It was a time when my darling nation would lump the ball down the channel, hope the opposing full back would slip on the intentionally-overwatered piece of grass and we’d get a shot on target as to appease Twitter mobs.

It was a time when Italian OAPs would claim there to be no domestic league in Ireland, where men with northern accents slate the concept of playing football just because he won a few trophies with Celtic, a time where Mick McCarthy – more famous for a GIF than his managerial feats – seemed more interested in anything else but his job.

NEW TO PADDY POWER?

• CLICK HERE FOR OUR £/€20 SIGN-UP OFFER

But now that the Messiah has arrived in the shape of Stephen Kenny, going back to 3pm kickoffs at Carrow Road just doesn’t land as much as it used to. Nah, I’m joking. Thank Christ we’re done with that nonsense.

We’ve also reached a point in the season where our xG analysis can be split up into home and away segments – as the sample size is now large enough to accommodate stylistic differences in approach. 3pm BTTS acca coming in hot!

* An accumulator on these four best bets pays at approximately 10/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

Aston Villa v Brighton – No

Now, there’s one thing that absolutely destroys metrics as we know – and that’s the new manager bounce. You simply can’t accommodate for players giving more effort, especially for someone like Gerrard.

But it’s worth noting two things: Gerrard knows they’re in a relegation scrap. The focus, like it was at Rangers, was being solid. Look at their clean sheet record. Plus, they’re only behind Chelsea in terms of xG overachievement at home this season. Brighton are also overachieving away from home, so it’s a no from me.

Burnley v Crystal Palace – No

The issue with these two is that Palace are a side who would play away from home every single week, as are Burnley. Both of them thrive on the road compared to at home – and the reason is they don’t want possession. Games like this then, by nature, are low scoring.

Burnley are one of four sides to have scored two or more fewer goals than their xG total at home, and that seems more down to approach than bad luck in front of goal. Palace? This isn’t the away game they generally take advantage of.

Newcastle v Brentford – Yes

Newcastle are entering a new era and while their struggles are well-documented, they’re already overachieving as SJP – so let that would-be saviour vanish from your thoughts immediately.

Only Leeds have had a fairer return on their output than Brentford on their travels this year, so what you see is what you get with them. Given Newcastle’s desire to be as open as possible, I’ll roll the dice.

3pm: Norwich v Southampton – Yes

Only Wolves and Brentford have underperformed more in front of goal compared to their build-up than Norwich when at home. And nobody has been as weak in those situations on their travels as Southampton. This is the tap-in of the weekend – enjoy it while you can, folks.

Saturday’s 3pm BTTS acca:

Aston Villa v Brighton – No
Burnley v Crystal Palace – No
Newcastle v Brentford – Yes
Norwich v Southampton – Yes

* An accumulator on these four best bets pays at approximately 10/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

FREE BET IF 1 LEG LETS YOU DOWN

If one leg of your 4+ fold Accumulator fails to land, you get up to £/€10 back as a free bet. Customers can qualify for 1 Acca Free Bet If 1 Leg Lets You Down per day up to £/€10. The free bets will be credited by 12pm the following day.

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Saturday’s Selections

• TURBO TREBLE: Thommo’s 9/1 Premier League Saturday treble
• THOMMO: Watford v Man Utd punts from Phil & our trader
• BET BUILDER: Bag this 26/1 belter for Leicester v Chelsea
• BEST BETS: Liverpool v Arsenal punts from Thommo & our trader
• ACCA: Our savvy 21/1 four-fold for Saturday evening
• BET BUILDER: Salah to sizzle in this 21/1 Liverpool v Arsenal flutter
• THOMMO: 7/1 Leicester v Chelsea bet is the pick of the punts

Something for Sunday

• THOMMO: Phil & trader’s best for Sunday’s Premier League games

The Paddy Power Guide To Safer Gambling – Everything You Need To Know