* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
Paddy Power’s top football trader Jason Murphy is back with another raft of top tips for this week’s biggest matches. This time he’s getting stuck into England’s trip to Poland for their World Cup qualifier on Wednesday.
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And, while The Three Lions have been in good form this window, Jason thinks the value actually lies with the home side here. So, with three plays for you to consider, here’s where the smart money’s going.
TV: Wednesday 7.45pm: Poland v England
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7.45pm: Poland v England
If you look at the match prices England are about 8/13 to win this game and that’s wrong. England went off about 1/3 at Wembley in March against this Polish team and there were no fans in the stadium but there was no Robert Lewandowski in that team.
Looking at international football in the last 12 to 18 months there’s no one who moves a price like Lewandowski. It’s on a par with Gareth Bale for Wales. This England price to win is wrong, it’s too short, therefore the value is siding with Poland.
That’s why the tip I’m going to give you in the match betting is Poland (+1). There are a couple of reasons why I think it’s a bet. Poland don’t lose many World Cup or European qualifying games – they’ve only lost three of their last 28. They’ve actually won 21 of those.
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They’re very good at home but the market is against Poland. They were disappointing at the Euros but for me the market is rating England a bit too highly. The main reason why, if you look at that group, is that England are five points clear.
Gareth Southgate is conservative, he’s pragmatic, almost to a fault at times. But the smart thing for England to do if it’s a draw in the last 20 minutes is not to chase the game. Southgate knows a point here more or less will seem them heading to Qatar.
The correct score I’ll give you is probably 1-1. The reason being that Poland have changed style and become more attacking. I fancy them to score despite how good England have been defensively, but if you look at England going forward as well then we know all about their attacking talents.
For me the first goal scorer has to be Lewandowski. He’s got 72 international goals with an almost identical strike rate as Cristiano Ronaldo. Lewandowski, for me, is incredible. I think he’s the best No.9 in world football. I’d have him over Harry Kane, I’d have him over Ronaldo.
Tips for Poland v England
Poland (+1)
Correct Score: 1-1
Robert Lewandowski to Score First
* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
FOOTBALL TIPS TODAY
- DOUBLE: Send our 12/1 Wales & Northern Ireland punt into the top corner
- BTTS ACCA: Our 15/1 punt for tonight’s action across Europe
- BET BUILDER: Check out this 26/1 Poland v England shout
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