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The Draw
Tuesday 7:45pm: Ireland v Serbia
Sky Sports Football
Ireland are yet to win in 11 competitive games under Stephen Kenny and slumped to an embarrassing 1-1 draw against fifth seeds Azerbaijan on Saturday, but this is a game that the Boys in Green will approach with a certain degree of confidence.
Ireland’s best performances under Kenny have come against superior opposition, most notably the heart-breaking 2-1 defeat in Portugal last week.
Ireland also gave a good account for themselves in a narrow 3-2 defeat in Serbia and were only undone by a ridiculous Aleksandar Mitrovic chip, while they unquestionably deserved to win their Euro 2020 play-off in Slovakia.
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It is the games against weaker nations, including Azerbaijan and Luxembourg, where Kenny’s side have really struggled, finding it difficult to penetrate a stubborn defence that employs two rigid banks of four.
Serbia will employ no such tactics and should afford Ireland more space to play in behind.
While Serbia are clearly a better side than Ireland, they have been quite fortunate so far in qualifying and do not fully deserve their lofty position on top of Group A.
They were fortunate not to concede a penalty against Ireland in the opening game and were even luckier not to concede a late Cristiano Ronaldo winner in a 2-2 draw with Portugal when the ball had clearly crossed the line.
Their 2-1 win over Azerbaijan also came courtesy of a winner inside the last 10 minutes. All told, Ireland are capable of avoiding a third consecutive home defeat to Serbia on Tuesday night.
Under 2.5 Goals
Shane Duffy’s late equaliser on Saturday saved Ireland from the embarrassment of losing at home to Azerbaijan and also brought a hugely embarrassing run of goalscoring form at the Aviva Stadium to an end.
Duffy’s header was Ireland’s first home goal since November 2019 and just their sixth competitive home goal since the infamous 5-1 play-off defeat to Denmark in November 2017.
Ireland simply do not score goals at home and that problem extends far beyond the tenure of Stephen Kenny, with both Mick McCarthy and Martin O’Neill failing to produce swash-buckling goalscoring performances.
An Irish striker has not scored at home in a competitive match since September 2019, while Ireland have also failed to score a non-headed competitive goal since March of the same year.
The reverse fixture with Serbia may have ended in an uncharacteristically high-scoring 3-2 defeat, but Ireland are a different kettle of fish at home and it is difficult to see them scoring more than once if they do manage to come away with a draw.
Aleksandar Mitrovic to Score Anytime
Mitrovic made the difference between the two sides when he scored two magnificent goals off the bench thanks to a little bit of help from the inexperienced Mark Travers in the Irish net and he is more than capable of scoring again on Tuesday night.
Mitrovic has scored a staggering seven goals in four qualifying games so far, making him the top scorer across the European qualifiers.
He has also enjoyed an excellent start to the season with Fulham, scoring four goals in their opening five games.
Mitrovic’s international record is simply incredible; he is his country’s all-time top-scorer by quite a distance with 43 goals in 65 caps.
He is exactly what Ireland miss at the moment and is by far the most likely Serbian player to get on the scoresheet.
Over 10.5 Corners
Ireland’s dismal home form extends to the number of corners they win in each game at the Aviva Stadium.
Stephen Kenny’s side have not won more than five corners in a single home game since he took charge last year, despite pushing for late equalisers against the likes of Luxembourg and Azerbaijan.
However, they have won a minimum of three corners in every qualifying game so far and reached the lofty heights of six corners in their 3-2 defeat in Serbia earlier in the year.
Ireland also conceded an average of 12 corners in their two games against Portugal and Serbia and can expect to concede at least six corners on Tuesday night.
There will be a time when Serbia turn the screw and it is inevitable that Ireland will be forced to concede or launch a rear-guard action at some stage.
Ireland v Serbia betting tips:
The Draw
Under 2.5 Goals
Aleksandar Mitrovic to Score Anytime
Over 10.5 Corners
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* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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