* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
Since Thomas Tuchel arrived at Chelsea in January, Manchester City and Chelsea’s expected goals statistics have been quite similar and would suggest that the match prices should be a little closer that they currently are. I’m reluctant to read too much into Chelsea’s end of season dip in form when their performances were largely decent with poor finishing letting them down.
However, it will be vital for Chelsea that both N’golo Kante and Edouard Mendy are passed fit after training this week. Kante has played his best football since Antonio Conte’s tenure at Stamford Bridge and his absence was keenly felt in Sunday’s defeat to Aston Villa. He will be essential to shutting down the space in front of Chelsea’s back four where Phil Foden and Kevin De Bruyne thrive.
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Chelsea will not want to go into a match of this magnitude with a potential liability in goal and that is what Kepa Arrizabalaga has been in the last couple of seasons. He had by far the worst save percentage of any goalkeeper in the Premier League last season, especially struggling with shots from distance.
While this may sound harsh, but Youri Tielemans’ goal in the FA Cup final looked like a save that a very good goalkeeper would have made so Mendy being close to full fitness is a boost for Chelsea.
Saturday 8pm: Manchester City v Chelsea
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Chelsea win or draw double chance
While Man City didn’t have their first choice teams selected in either of Chelsea’s two victories over them in the Premier League and FA Cup, it should give Chelsea some added belief that this outstanding City side can be beaten. In what should be a tight, low-scoring match between two outstanding defences, Chelsea to Win or Draw in the Double Chance market looks like the best value.
Under 2.5 Goals
A cagey affair looks likely between the two teams with best defensive records in the Premier League and two managers who have great respect for each other. This match going all the way to a penalty shoot-out with Under 2.5 Goals wouldn’t be a surprise.
Jorginho to be score anytime
There are two stats that point me in Jorginho’s direction here as Chelsea’s penalty taker. Man City have conceded the second-most penalties in the Premier league and Timo Werner has won more penalties than any other player in the league this season
Added to that, we tend to see more penalties in the Champions League with European referees tending to be stricter than their Premier League counterparts. All of those reasons suggest that Jorginho to Score Anytime looks a fair price here.
Mason Mount to have a shot on target
Mason Mount has the joint highest shots per game of any Chelsea player with Timo Werner and it looks reasonable value for Mount to find the target on Saturday evening.
Tips for Man City v Chelsea
Chelsea win or draw double chance
Under 2.5 Goals
Jorginho to be score anytime
Mason Mount to have a shot on target
This acca-insured Bet Builder adds up to around 34/1 and should hopefully bring us some excitement for the big one on Saturday evening.
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* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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