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For Sunday’s round-up of European football we’ll be taking a look at the race for the final Champions League places in the Italian Serie A. We’ll also be checking out the final La Liga fixture of the season where Sevilla are taking on Alaves and finally to Portugal where Benfica take on Braga in the cup final. Let’s have a deep dive into the stats and find some value in the markets.
Atalanta in second are just three points above Juventus in fifth. Milan sit in fourth on 76 points and Napoli are in third with 76 points as well. Atalanta will definitely play Champions League football next season, so there are two places to be decided and it’s between Milan, Juve and Napoli to fill them. After leading the Serie A for so long this season and playing some fantastic football it would be total heartbreak for Milan not to qualify now, but that’s football.
Atalanta have won all seven of their most recent home Serie A matches. Milan’s record is not as good but still impressive, winning seven of their last nine on the road, losing two. Atalanta have scored two or more goals in seven of their last nine at home, while Milan share the same stat over their last nine on the road. Both Teams to Score Two or More screams value.
Juventus can qualify here with a draw, but they’re going to need Atalanta to beat Milan. The Old Lady would draw level with Milan on points, but would qualify with a superior goal difference. They are obviously massive favourites here as they’ve not lost a Serie A match at Bologna since 1998, a run of 20 matches where they won 15.
We should see the home side drawing some blood though, they’ve scored in seven of their last nine at home in the league and Juve have only kept one clean sheet over their last nine away games in Serie A.
Napoli also don’t necessarily need a win to qualify here, a draw should be enough so long as either Milan or Juventus lose. They could even lose and qualify so long as Juve and Atalanta both win. Saying that, Napoli have only ever lost twice to Verona at home over their history and the last time was in 1983.
Verona have a decent away scoring record, they netted 22 over their 18 away league matches and Napoli have only kept six clean sheets over their 18 home games this season. Verona have only not scored in four of their 18 on the road. Napoli to Win & Both Teams to Score is the way to go here as well.
Sevilla have won seven of their last nine home La Liga matches, keeping an impressive six clean sheets in the process. Alaves have won only one of their last nine on their La Liga outings. They failed to score in five of those games and in facing Seville, who have only conceded 0.61 goals on average at home and where Both Teams To Score has only landed in four of their 18 home La Liga games, they’ve very unlikely to come away with anything here.
Both teams will be going all out to finish their seasons with some silverware here. Braga can win the cup for the first time since 2016, while Benfica can extend their record to 27 Taca de Portugals with a win.
The good news for Braga here is that while Benfica are certainly favourites, they rarely keep a clean sheet these days – conceding in seven of their last nine matches in all competitions. Braga’s scoring record isn’t as good, they’ve only netted in five of their last nine matches. But, against this Benfica side who don’t put much stock in defending, we should see both getting on the scoresheet here.
19:45 Atalanta v Milan: Both Teams to Score Two or More
19:45 Bologna v Juventus: Juventus to Win & Both Teams To Score
19:45 Napoli v Verona: Napoli to Win and Both Teams To Score
20:00 Sevilla v Alaves: Sevilla To Win To Nil
20:30 Braga v Benfica: Both Teams To Score
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