* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
It’s been a real rollercoaster in League Two and we’ve still got plenty of ups and downs to come over the final 90 minutes of the regular season. Cheltenham need a win to wrap up the title while Cambridge, who have lost their last two, are the only club left who can realistically topple them.
For Bolton in 3rd, they simply need to match Morecambe’s result to seal promotion. They can still technically win the title but need a 12-goal swing and will be fully focused on just finishing in the top three after their 96th-minute loss to Exeter last time out.
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The Shrimps are safely into the playoffs but will be hoping The Trotters make a pig’s ear of it on the final day. It’s a real bun fight for the final playoff spots with anyone from Newport, Tranmere, Forest Green, Exeter and Salford with a chance of filling the final three spots.
Down at the bottom it’s done and dusted though, with Southend and Grimsby already confirmed as heading into non-league. But, with so much on the line at the top of the table, let’s try and find some value in the games that really matter in Saturday’s final round of fixtures in the fourth tier.
Title Race
Cambridge United v Grimsby
Cambridge could not have asked for a kinder fixture ahead of a game they simply have to win. League Two’s 2nd-placed side take on the already relegated and rock-bottom Grimsby knowing that a loss could see them blow automatic promotion and sink into the playoffs.
Cambridge have been very poor recently though and Grimsby are actually in the better form over the last five games. It just tells you how much pressure affects players – especially at this level. United have won two of their last five, losing the other three and Grimsby’s record is the polar opposite with three wins and two losses.
In terms of a play here Cambridge are way too short to back given their form and I’m not 100% convinced they will get the three points anyway. Instead, we’ll side with Over 2.5 Goals which has landed in three of The U’s last five and four of The Mariners’ games over the same timeframe.
Cheltenham v Harrogate
Harrogate did Cheltenham a huge favour beating Cambridge 5-4 in a thrilling game on Friday night. And, because of that, The Robins will be well aware that the Yorkshire side are not already on their holidays and will be up for the fight once more.
Cheltenham need a win to guarantee the title and they know that a draw for themselves and a win for Cambridge would see them leapfrogged on goal difference at the final hurdle. Harrogate are in 16th but had only won once in 10 before last Friday’s aforementioned barnburner.
The Robins are finishing with a bit of a whimper, drawing before a 1-0 loss to Newport at the weekend. However, they generally keep it tight and I’m plumping for Under 2.5 Goals in this game. It’s landed in the league leaders’ last seven games and we can expect them to dictate proceedings again here.
Playoff picture
Exeter v Barrow
Exeter are down in eighth but can theoretically overhaul Newport, Tranmere and Forest Green on the final day to seal a play-off place because of their superb goal difference. They’re a point behind FGR and three behind Newport and Tranmere.
If one of those lose and the Grecians beat 21st-placed Barrow they will be extending their season for the fourth time in the last five seasons. Anything other than a win and they’re praying Forest Green lose and Salford fail to win. Matt Taylor’s side have done their best to blow their playoff hopes but have ground out two vital, late, late wins in their last two.
Given that they are finding a way to win and seem to have rediscovered a little of the early-season steel I’m going to side with Exeter to Win and pile the pressure on the three sides above them. Barrow have avoided defeat just once in the last five and, with their hosts desperate for the win, I think City are the play here at decent-enough odds.
Southend v Newport
As mentioned, Newport are one of the sides who could still slide out of the playoffs but I think they should have more than enough to beat the relegated Southend on Saturday. There were plenty of ways to go for our final selection but, as they’re away and their odds have taken a boost, it’s the south Wales side getting the nod.
The Exiles secured a massive win against Cheltenham on Saturday to put them in the driving seat to finish 7th or higher in League Two. That result was their third win in their last four so they’re in good form as well.
Southend have picked up a little of late, winning their last two, but it’s far too little too late and they’re already confined to relegation. County showed their mettle beating the league leaders last time out and I’m confident they’ll get the job done again with another Newport Win.
Tips for League Two’s final day
Cambridge United v Grimsby – Over 2.5 Goals
Cheltenham v Harrogate – Under 2.5 Goals
Exeter v Barrow – Exeter to Win
Southend v Newport – Newport to Win
These selections in an acca-insured four-fold will give you odds of around 11/1 with Paddy Power.
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* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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