*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
I’m not saying it’s a certainty, but this could be the game that wins Manchester City the Premier League. Not that they’d be crowned after the full-time whistle, but if Liverpool beat Man United on Sunday, then City will be 13 points ahead with four games remaining.
Now, I’m about as good at maths as Arsenal are at finding a replacement for Patrick Vieira – but with a loss on Sunday combined with a City win, Man United would hand their rivals the league title – at the hands of the side who’d be forfeiting their crown.
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That’s one of the sweetest ways you could ever possibly win a Championship, is it not? But first, the challenge of Crystal Palace. And that’s not to be taken lightly. They’ve taken points off Everton, Spurs and Man United this year you know.
Actually, no – I can’t even pretend here. I’d love to set you right up and lie to you about how tricky this is going to be coming off the back of a Champions League semi-final, but it won’t be. Thankfully we don’t need it to be close for us to have a few punts. Here’s your three best bets. No bull***t.
Saturday 12.30pm: Crystal Palace v Manchester City
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Short-Price Punt: HT/FT – Man City/Man City
I like this HT/FT Man City/Man City bet for a few reasons. Primarily because both teams will want a game where they don’t have to exert themselves too much. City know if they get their business done in the first half, they can keep 85% of the ball unchallenged in the second 45.
And Palace know that if they just let City score early, they’ll get the same comfy payoff in the second half. They’re the ultimate pragmatists and coming out of this tie without severe goal difference damage is the order of the day, whether we like it or not.
Value Play: Under 1.5 Goals
Honestly, it might well be one of those days. Whether that’s an early goal that sees the game set up like a training session for an hour, or a very late knock from City to steal three points post-fatigue from their midweek trip to Paris – you’re covered if you don’t fancy it to rain goals in London.
And you might not realise it, but 1-0 is the most common scoreline in Man City games this year – as Pep’s charges have won six games in the league by a goal-to-nil. Didn’t see that coming, did you? My value play is Under 1.5 Goals here.
Long Shot: Ruben Dias to Score First
Wouldn’t it be a lovely end to his week – where it saw him put in one of the best individual performances from a player playing for an English side in Europe over the last decade – by scoring the winner against Palace?
The logic is here is that the Eagles are a safety-first side and they’re very content to give up set pieces instead of facing the disorganised nature of open play defending. If City land ten corners in a game, there’s quite good value in one of them finding the Portuguese centre half’s noggin with Dias to Score First.
Tips for Crystal Palace v Man City
Short-price punt: HT/FT – Man City/Man City
Value Play: Under 1.5 Goals
Long Shot: Ruben Dias to Score First
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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