* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
14th-placed Southampton take on 15th-placed Burnley in the early Premier League kick-off on Easter Sunday. The home side haven’t won any of their five most recent league matches at St Mary’s, while Burnley have beaten the likes of Liverpool, Crystal Palace and Spurs over their last five on the road.
Can Sean Dyche’s Burnley take yet another three points on the road here? Let’s go through the stats to find the three selections for this match.
Over their five most recent meetings at St Mary’s both teams have won two and one ended all square. However, the Saints failed to win any of the three most recent of those matches. That home record is pretty disastrous-looking too, they’ve actually only won one of their last eight Premier League matches at home – a 1-0 win over a luckless Liverpool in early January.
Since then, they’ve lost to Arsenal, Aston Villa, Wolves and Brighton. The Saints really need to start getting home wins on the board or face getting pulled into a relegation fight going on just below them.
Sunday 12:00 – Southampton v Burnley
Sky Sports Main Event / Sky Sports Premier League
Burnley have only won one of their last five in the league (a 2-1 away win over Everton before the break) drawing three and losing one. Indeed, Dyche’s team have lost just two of their last nine home/away Premier League fixtures, drawing five and winning two, so they’ll be confident of getting something here against a side who can’t buy a win at home of late.
The market is making Southampton the favourites here, but with Burnley’s stronger recent Premier League record, as well as taking seven points from a possible nine over their three most recent visits to St Mary’s, there’s better value in backing Burnley. They do draw too often though, so we’re taking some insurance.
Both Teams to Score has landed in four out of five previous home Southampton matches in the league and they’ve gotten on the scoresheet in five out of their last six at St Mary’s too.
Burnley’s scoring record on the road isn’t quite as good, they’ve gotten on the scoresheet in just three of their last five on their travels in the league. But, in facing a side who have conceded 18 goals over their 14 home matches, they should be able to hit the mark at least once here.
Either of these teams could really do with the win here to stay ahead of the goings on below them and with matches beginning to run out, neither can afford to lose many more matches. Expect goals from the two teams here.
Here’s a great stat for us to exploit. Southampton have scored a First Half goal in five of their last six home PL matches. Indeed, they’ve one of the highest average rates for first half goals in the league, averaging 0.93 goals per first half at home.
Tied this in with Burnley’s record of conceding at least one opening period goal in five of their last seven on the road and we’re getting very tasty odds for the Saints to get on the scoresheet during the first period of play.
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