Football Tips: Our 3 best bets for RB Leipzig v Bayern on Saturday

Our tipster Paddy Murphy unearths the best bets for the big clash in the Bundesliga this weekend.

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

New to Paddy Power?

    Well that was certainly an interesting international break. You’d be slightly red-faced, we’re looking at you Gary Lineker, if you’d suggested smaller nations should have their own mini league. Armenia beat Iceland and then Romania, Luxembourg beat Ireland and North Macedonia beat Germany in Germany. The might of Germany!

    That’s a pretty amazing win for the away side and we’ll be seeing a few German internationals here, will they still be licking their wounds? Just four points separate both teams at the top of the Bundesliga, this is simply a must-win for RB Leipzig. Let’s have a look for the three best bets for this fascinating Bundesliga clash.

    The Draw

    It’s rare enough these days to see Bayern Munich’s odds above Evens but the injury to their star striker Robert Lewandowski has seen their odds taking a massive jump here. They’re still massive favourites to land the league title but, with just four points between the sides and their main goal-scoring threat out for at least a month, RB Leipzig have to take this by the scruff and go for broke.

    A massive problem for Leipzig though is that they’ve only beaten Bayern once over their 11 matches against them. Bayern have won five and five ended level (with Bayern winning one of them on penalties).

    Serge Gnabry

    Saturday 5.30pm: RB Leipzig v Bayern Munich
    BT Sport 1

    Of course, Bayern will have had most of their players away on international duty and while Leipzig have plenty of internationals on their books, they don’t have as many as Bayern and will surely be fresher than their travel-worn opponents. Bayern would have to edge it based on their players though, their squad is stacked with stars who have the experience and skill to turn the match while Leipzig have to function as a unit.

    Bayern have only lost three of their last 15 away league matches, Leipzig have only lost two of their last 15 at home. This should be a cracking match but the Draw odds offer the best value, especially since four out of the last five meetings between the pair in all competitions have ended level.

    Serge Gnabry to Score Anytime

    Without Lewandowski the onus to score is going to be on a few players here; Serge Gnabry, Thomas Muller and Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting. Now, Muller, who has retired from international football, and Choupo-Moting will have had a solid week of training together since Lewandowski’s injury announcement and no doubt will have been working on drills. Indeed, the odds on all three to Score Anytime are almost the same.

    Muller has two goals over his eight appearances against Leipzig, Gnabry has four over his nine, while Choupo-Moting has never scored against them. Choupo-Moting is a handful but he’s one of those strikers that holds up plays and brings in others and tries to get a tap in.

    Muller can score from anywhere and works best when having a target man like Lewandowski or Choupo-Moting in front but Hansi Flick might just pair Gnabry with Muller up top here seeing as he’s got a good record against Leipzig and provided two assists and got a goal while on international duty.

    The pair have worked well in the past and Gnabry’s form has greatly improved of late, scoring five and assisting three over his last seven matches for both club and country. With him being on an upward trend we’re giving Gnabry to Score Anytime the nod here.

    Both Teams To Score in the Second Half

    When you have two high-scoring teams it can be hard to find ways to exploit it in the markets but we’re found some decent value here. Both teams are scoring around 60% of their goals in the second half of matches and scoring 1.0 and 0.85 goals per second half on average in their home/away matches.

    Over their last five home Bundesliga matches, Leipzig have only scored two first half goals and while Bayern have a good record of first half goals, without their main man leading the line they’re going to need time to settle into the match. Most of the action should be in the second half here and both teams should get on the scoresheet during the second period of play.

    Tips for Leipzig v Bayern

    The Draw
    Serge Gnabry to Score Anytime
    BTTS in the Second Half

    *All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.