Football Tips: 3 best bets for the Madrid derby as Atletico host Real on Sunday

Our tipster Paddy Murphy takes a deep dive into Sunday's Madrid Derby to bring you the three best bets.


*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

With one hand on the La Liga trophy Atletico Madrid welcome their fiercest of rivals Real Madrid to the Wanda Metropolitano on Sunday afternoon for what should be a mouth-watering Madrid derby.

With 14 games to go Atletico are five points ahead of Real and can take a huge step towards lifting their second La Liga title in 10 years. Let’s have a look for the three best bets for this fascinating Madrid derby.

Over 2.5 Goals

Just as they’re entering the final part of the season Atletico Madrid are stumbling. Is the pressure of fighting on two fronts too much for Diego Simeone’s side? They’ve choked before and they’re going to need to pull together so they don’t waste the opportunity to land what should be their 11th league title.

Real and Barcelona are both just five behind them on 53 points and Real have now gone six matches without defeat. Thanks to their superior recent form, they’ll be confident of getting the full three points here. They’ll take some further confidence from the fact that they’ve not lost away to Atletico in the league since 2015.

Luis Suarez

Sunday 3.15pm: Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid
LaLiga TV

Indeed, this will be the fourth time the sides have met at Atletico’s Wanda Metropolitano and Atletico are yet to beat their city rivals there. Of course, Atletico have an incredibly stingy defence and only 42% of their home league games have seen Over 2.5 goals. Over their last four home La Liga matches they’ve conceded six and, while they can keep most teams quiet at home, this Real Madrid side are averaging 1.69 away and it’ll be incredibly tough to keep them scoreless here.

Both teams have the quality and players to score at least one each. With the league title possibly on the line here both have to go for the win. We’re confident we’ll see a cracking match here with both eager to get the three points and it may well results in Over 2.5 Goals.

Half time: Draw

Looking at the five most recent matchups between the sides three of them have ended the first half in a draw. Looking at the three La Liga meetings since Atletico moved to their new stadium, two of them have seen half time draws.

We can see over the season, too, that both teams have a tendency to draw the first half of their matches. Both have drawn 11 of their 24 and 25 La Liga matches respectively. This one looks like we’re going to see a cagey start and we’re getting a pretty decent price here on the Half Time: Draw.

Luis Suarez to Score Anytime

Should Atletico land the title this season Luis Suarez will have to take much of the credit. So far this season he’s scored 16 over his 21 league appearances and every time he gets another one if causes more blushes around the Barcelona boardroom, which isn’t a place exactly known for its bashfulness.

The Uruguayan has 11 goals in 17 matches against Los Blancos over his career and is always a thorn in their side. Add to this the fact that he has six goals to his name over his six most recent home league fixtures and, in such prolific form, we simply have to go with the former Barcelona and Liverpool man Suarez to Score Anytime.

Tips for the Madrid derby

Over 2.5 Goals
Half Time: Draw
Luis Suarez to Score Anytime

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.


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