Football Tips: Our 3 best bets for Der Klassiker as Bayern Munich host Dortmund

Our tipster Paddy Murphy dissects the big one in Germany on Saturday evening.

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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Bayern Munich sit atop of the German Bundesliga on 52 points. RB Leipzig are hot on their heels though and are just two points behind the Bavarians. Borussia Dortmund are out of the Champions League places in fifth and between now and the end of the season cementing their place in the Top 4 will be the priority for them.

Saturday 5.30pm: Bayern v Dortmund
BT Sport 2 and BT Sport Ultimate

Bayern have beaten Dortmund in five out of their last six meetings here in all competitions and with that record can we find some value? We’ve gone through all the stats and form to find what we think are the three best bets for the latest Bundesliga Klassiker.

Both Teams to Score in the Second Half

When two titans of football meet in a clash of this magnitude, first on the list of bets is usually either Both Teams to Score or Over 2.5 goals. The logic is sound, both teams are scoring and conceding plenty this season. Bayern are averaging a whopping 3.82 goals per home league game this season, conceding 1.45.

Dortmund are scoring 1.92 per game away from home and conceding 1.42, so you’d expect plenty of goals here and both teams to register at least one each as well. The problem is that the BTTS odds are, well, less than desirable. It seems that every man and his dog has put money on it and the odds have dropped significantly since opening, eroding all value.

However, we can still exploit their records here and make a value bet. Bayern have scored 64.2% of their goals this season in the second half of matches while Dortmund have scored 81.3% of their goals in the second 45 mins. Looking even further into the stats, Bayern have averaged 2.55 goals home goals in the second half of games while Dortmund have averaged 1.5 in the second half of their away Bundesliga games. With those stats we’re getting great odds here, our first pick is BTTS in the Second Half.

Erling Haaland to Score Anytime

Bayern captain Robert Lewandowski is the clear favourite in this market and were it not for the slim odds we’d be very much tempted to give him the nod here. The Polish striker has 19 goals in 22 appearances against his former club and there’s little doubt he’ll get on the scoresheet against them here again. Erling Haaland to Score Anytime offers some great value though.

The Norwegian has 17 goals in 18 league appearances this season. He’s obviously in good form and has five in his last five matches in all competitions and just looking at his away games in the Bundesliga he has six over his last five. He’s also scored two in three appearances against Bayern and he’s primed to add to that tally here.

Bayern to Win & Over 3.5 Goals

While Dortmund had to endure a spell of bad form towards the end of January, their February results saw a great improvement. However, Bayern have a solid history of inflicting tough lessons on their Klassiker rivals just as they’re coming into good form. Bayern, let’s not forget, have now gone 31 home league matches without defeat, only four of those matches were draws.

Add to this the fact that six out of seven of their most recent home matches have seen Over 3.5 goals, the record stands at three out of five in Dortmund’s most recent away games, and Over 3.5 goals has been seen in five out of six recent meetings between the pair here. Bayern also won all six. Dortmund will put up a good fight, they always do, but this Bayern side should come out on top over the 90 minutes. The final bet is Bayern to Win and Over 3.5 Goals.

Tips for Bayern v Dortmund

Erling Haaland to Score Anytime
Both Teams to Score in the Second Half
Bayern to Win & Over 3.5 Goals

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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