*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at time of publication but subject to change
“Maybe I like the misery.” It’s possible some Tottenham fans have a similar relationship with the Jose Mourinho version of their team to that which Mrs Doyle has with making tea. In the hope that the Portuguese brings success to your club, you have to embrace his safety-first approach.
In mid-December, Spurs sat top of the league, five points clear of Manchester City and with the best defensive record in the Premier League. But they’ve only won two of their last nine games in the league, leaving them to shelve any hopes of contesting the title and instead focussing upon the battle for a top four finish.
Thursday 8pm: Tottenham v Chelsea
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Their last two games have proven particularly miserable, with Liverpool and Brighton collectively running up a total of 30 shots while conceding only 11, to generate 4.6 expected goals to Tottenham’s 0.6. A loss to the champions is one thing, but a timid defeat at fourth bottom Brighton quite another.
Chelsea’s recent poor form of their own may have helped Spurs here – the Blues have only won three of their previous nine league games – but they canned Frank Lampard along the away and have picked up four points since Thomas Tuchel took the reins.
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Chelsea to win
They also have an excellent recent record against Tottenham, with their only defeat in the last six meetings occurring on penalties in the League Cup earlier this season. Nonetheless, there’s little difference in the odds between all three potential outcomes, so there won’t be much in it. The big problem for Mourinho is the massive hole in the front of his team.
“Harry Kane, I think, is irreplaceable,” he said in the All Or Nothing documentary shortly after learning that his captain would be out for several months last season. The fact he also said “we’re f***ed” when hearing the news was pretty telling too.
And it’s easy to see why Jose thinks that way. Tottenham have taken just four points from their last 13 league games in which Kane did not feature, winning none of them. Looking at their record against their fellow big six clubs, Spurs have only won two of their 11 league matches against the other top sides since the start of last season when their talisman hasn’t scored or assisted at least one goal.
Tottenham and Kane’s success are so intertwined that Chelsea can Win to add to Spurs’ fans misery in this match and deliver Tuchel his third career victory against the Lilywhites after two Europa League triumphs with Dortmund in 2016.
Under 2.5 goals
These sides might have played out a memorable 5-3 match at White Hart Lane in 2015 – with a certain J. Mourinho occupying the away dugout – but the more recent meetings have been far less entertaining. Only one of the last five clashes has paid out on over 2.5 goals, and that required an 89th minute own goal from Antonio Rudiger to get over the line.
Tottenham’s home games against the other established big clubs have followed a similar pattern while they have been under Mourinho’s management, with only two of the eight featuring at least three goals. As three of their four wins in that spell have ended 2-0, Jose will be hoping for more of the same and Under 2.5 Goals.
Both teams to score – no
With that many nils floating about at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and Spurs struggling to create chances in big matches even when they’ve had Kane available – Tottenham have had five shots or fewer in five of their eight ‘big six’ matches at home under Mourinho – there’s little to suggest Lloris and Mendy will both be beaten here.
Three of the last four meetings in the league have seen at least one of these teams draw a blank, and they delivered a yawn-inducing 0-0 draw earlier in the season. It’s very difficult to see both teams scoring on Thursday evening, so bet the other way with BTTS? No.
Olivier Giroud to score anytime
With only two Chelsea games under his belt, Thomas Tuchel is still experimenting with the new toys at his disposal. The most advanced three players against Wolves were Olivier Giroud, Kai Havertz and Hakim Ziyech, while in the win over Burnley it was Tammy Abraham, Mason Mount and Timo Werner. It’s nice to have options, isn’t it?
As Olivier Giroud remained on the bench for the latter match, it’s reasonable to assume he might get the nod to start here. With 11 goals in his 13 starts for club and country this season, he often delivers when he gets the opportunity, so back Giroud to Score Anytime at Tottenham, just as he did on his last league visit.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at time of publication but subject to change
Tips for Tottenham v Chelsea
Chelsea To Win
Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams To Score? No
Olivier Giroud to Score Anytime
These four selections in a Bet Builder will give you odds of around 11/1 with Paddy Power.
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