Football Tips: Paddy trader delivers his verdict on Wednesday’s Premier League best bets

Paddy's top football trader Jason Murphy takes a look at the best of the action in the Premier League on Wednesday night with PPTV.

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at time of publication but subject to change

6pm: Burnley v Aston Villa

Burnley had a great win against Liverpool and they’re going well in the FA Cup. I think Sean Dyche is probably having a look at that. He’s probably sick of being the doorman and he wants to get on the Wembley dance floor!

I don’t think Burnley are in danger of going down this season. Obviously, they still need to get a couple of results but they could be worth to look there in the FA Cup.

Wednesday 6pm: Burnley v Aston Villa
BT Sport 2

Aston Villa To Win

But, for this game, I’m going to side with Aston Villa for a couple reasons. The main one being that when these sides played back in the middle of December, Villa absolutely battered Burnley. They had about 27 attempts on goal.

If you look at Burnley, they haven’t beaten a side at home that went into the game in the top half the table. Their three wins at home have come against bottom-half opposition.

They are always competitive but, based on what we’ve seen in the last game and based on the fact that Villa are purring along, at even money or even slightly odds on, I’d rather be on Villa to Win this game.

Anwar El Ghazi to Score First

I’m going to tip up Anwar El Ghazi as the first goal scorer. Obviously wait for team news, especially with your goal scorers in this season of all seasons as managers will rotate to try and keep players fresh.

Ross Barkley has come back from injury and started against Manchester City and Newcastle. El Ghazi’s been dropped back on the bench. For me it’s a bit harsh on El Ghazi.

Villa have a game at the weekend away to Southampton where I think Barkley would be the better choice for that game and El Ghazi might start here. If he starts, he’ll be on penalties and I’ll have El Ghazi to Score First in this game.

6pm: Chelsea v Wolves

I think it’s a good time to play Chelsea. It was no surprise that Frank Lampard bit the bullet, given that we know how ruthless Roman Abramovich can be.

I think Thomas Tuchel should get more out of this squad in the short and the medium term than we would have expected Frank Lampard to have done in the long run had he stayed in the role. But looking at match prices, the market didn’t blink when Lampard was sacked.

Obviously Thomas Tuchel is going to take a time to come in and have an effect. But, for me, I wouldn’t be touching Chelsea at the price they are, especially if you look at the reverse fixture last month.

Wednesday 6pm: Chelsea v Wolves
BT Sport 1 and BT Sport Ultimate

Both Teams To Score

It was the strongest Chelsea XI other than Hakim Ziyech and they still lost 2-1 away at Wolves. That was a Wolves team that was missing Raul Jimenez as well.

You’re probably going to be looking to side with Wolves (+1) on the handicap but a really good bet for this one is Both Teams To Score. Chelsea have had five defeats in eight games and Wolves haven’t kept a clean sheet in 12 games. Both Teams To Score is probably the best bet in this game.

Willian Jose to Score First

Wait for team news to see if he does start, but Wolves have got Willian Jose in on loan from Real Sociedad. I do watch a lot of La Liga and I absolutely love him, he’s a fantastic striker. He will get goals.

If you look at his last four-and-a-half seasons at Sociedad, his xG had him in for about 53 goals. He’s got about 62 but what he’ll do as well is he’ll link up play better than maybe Fabio Silva will do in Jimenez’s absence.

Not only will he get goals for Wolves, but he will potentially make their overall attacking play work a lot better. They can sign him permanently in the summer if it all goes well and this is someone that Spurs were looking at last year to get in as Harry Kane’s backup. I think Willian Jose to Score First is a great bet in this game.


8.15pm Manchester United v Sheffield United

When Manchester United beat Sheffield United 3-2 back in December, Liverpool had just gone eight points clear and going into these fixtures United are six points ahead so it’s been a hell of a month for them.

In terms of a bet for this game, United are just a bit too short even though they’re going to win the game so you’re trying to find value in other markets. So, the one that I’m going to tip up is Man United and Over 2.5 Goals.

Wednesday 8.15pm: Manchester Untied v Sheffield United
BT Sport 1 and BT Sport Ultimate

Man United to Win and Over 2.5 Goals

If Manchester United get a goal ahead Sheffield United will have to come out and play and that increases the potential for the home side to get more goals. If you look at the last three meetings between the sides, United themselves have scored three goals in each of those three games.

The last time these two met The Blades were a bit unlucky. They went a goal up early and Sander Berge had to come off injured and Phil Jagielka came on. He’s probably still having nightmares about Marcus Rashford.

Jagielka’s only played a minute of Premier League football since that game. It’s not his fault, old age gets us all. If Sheffield United nick a goal, that’s great it will help this bet, but overall we still should see Manchester United win the Game and Over 2.5 Goals.

Edinson Cavani to Score First

I’m going to side with Edinson Cavani to Score First. You can look at all the United goal scorers. Maybe wait to see if Rashford starts because he did come off injured against Liverpool.

If he doesn’t play Anthony Martial will start on the left with Cavani up top. It’s all about looking at the prices and what you think will happen in the game and for me this is one of those games where Cavani really comes to life.

United are expected to dominate the ball against a really defensive-minded team. One thing we’ve seen from Cavani since he’s joined is that his movement is absolutely incredible.

He’s got four goals from a little over an xG of four so he is delivering, but there’s so many chances where he’s nearly scored. I just think for this game Cavani will drift into space and will get chances. In this game, of all your Manchester United options, Cavani to Score First is probably your best bet.

Jason’s Tips for Wednesday

6pm: Burnley v Aston Villa

Villa to Win
Anwar El Ghazi to Score First

6pm: Chelsea v Wolves

Both Teams to Score
Willian Jose to Score First

8.15pm: Manchester United v Sheffield United

Man United to Win and Over 2.5 Goals
Edinson Cavani to Score First

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at time of publication but subject to change

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