Two giants of European football clash on Tuesday night in the Champions League. Both have already qualified, although Juventus can’t leapfrog Barcelona in first place unless they win by seven goals.
Much of the focus will be all the individual battle between Lionel Messi and his old rival Cristiano Ronaldo. Will either of them come out on top? More importantly though, where is there any value to be found in the betting markets?
We’ve studied the stats and recent form and found the three best bets for this final Champions League Group G match.
Barcelona at home in the Champions League have now gone 38 home matches without a loss – kind of. They lost 2-8 to Bayern last season but it wasn’t a proper home match as it was played in Portugal – but if we did it count it, it would mean one ‘home’ loss in 38 home CL matches. Not too shabby at all.
But, you knew a ‘but’ was coming, there’s both very little between these sides regarding recent form and there’s very little to play for here, other than some pride in the shirts for both teams. However, what’s really paramount for both squads is to come out of this without any new injuries. Saying that neither team is going to throw in the towel and we’ve seen plenty of matches since the pandemic started where top sides want to get one over the other even without the presence of a crowd.
The situation was quite similar in 2017 when they met in Turin in the fifth match in the Group Stage. Both sides were streets ahead of the rest of the group and, while both had decent chances during the game, once it had gotten to 80 minutes the game was done and they played out a draw. There’s not many people out there who would be surprised if they did the same again on Tuesday night.
Barca have scored 17 goals over their five most recent home matches, 10 of them were scored in the second period of play. Since the start of this season’s Champions League they have scored 16 goals over their five matches, nine of which were in the second half.
The Old Lady’s away record makes for some similar reading, they’ve found the net 12 times over their five most recent away matches – eight were after the break. Away from home in the Champions League it’s even more prominent, they’ve scored 10 over their five most previous away matches and again, eight were in the second period. With those stats the current odds on Both Teams To Score in the Second Half is certainly presenting some decent value and we can’t look a good price in the proverbial mouth.
This lad is off his rocker you’re thinking! Well, it’s the value price we have to look at here. Only two out of the last five meetings between the sides have seen Over 2.5 goals landing and looking at recent matches at the Nou Camp only (both occurring in 2017) one was 3-0, the other was 0-0.
Of course, this pick isn’t without its risks, four out of Barcelona’s last five home Champions League matches have seen Overs, but they’ve not had to face a defence as solid as Juventus’. The Old Lady have kept the scoreline lower than 2.5 goals in three out of five recent away Champions League matches and three of their last five on the road in all competitions have also ended with Under 2.5 goals.
As always with Barcelona matches the market heavily sides with Overs, meaning we can often find the real value on the opposite side of the book and that’s what we’re going with here.
More Tuesday tips
- Krasnodar can punish laidback Chelsea in Champions League tie
- Fab Fernandes can lead this Leipzig v Man Utd 19/2 Same Game Multi
- Our 11/2 double for Tuesday’s TV matches in the Championship
- We’re on the goal hunt with this 5/1 Champions League acca for this week’s games