Football tips: Big score or a bore? Infogol’s 10/1 Champions League Overs/Unders acca

Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe has been crunching the numbers so you don't have to.

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Tuesday, 20:00: Real Madrid vs Inter Milan

Real Madrid are nearly in must-win territory after just one point from two group games so far, with their performances against Shakhtar Donetsk and Borussia Mönchengladbach hugely concerning. They have shown that they are capable of some impressive performances, see El Clasico (xG: BAR 1.9 – 3.4 RMA), but defensively there are still question marks, and Inter have the capabilities to really hurt Zinedine Zidane’s side.

The Italians are also winless in this group after two draws, but their performances in both give real cause for optimism, as they comfortably out-created both opponents. They boast some exceptional attacking talent, along with a very rigid system that makes them tough to beat. They are an entertaining team to follow though, with goals usually following Conte’s side.

Through two matches they have averaged 2.7 xGF per game, and I think they will contribute to a high-scoring game, with Over 2.5 goals the way I’m swaying.

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Wednesday, 20:00: Chelsea vs Rennes

Chelsea top Group E on goal difference after a 4-0 win at Krasnodar last week, though the scoreline did get inflated late on, netting three times in the last 15 minutes and racking up just 0.9 non-pen expected goals (xG: KRA 0.7 – 2.5 CHE).

They followed that up with a 3-0 win at Burnley in which they racked up just 1.2 xGF, and their overall average across all competitions this season reads at 1.0 non-pen xGF per game. Rennes were beaten by Sevilla last week in what was a fully deserved defeat, as they mustered a measly 0.09 xG in Spain, with the 1-0 scoreline flattering them.

That result came a week after a draw with Krasnodar, as it looks clear that Chelsea and Sevilla are the two best teams in the group, though that doesn’t mean Rennes can’t keep things tight here. Given Chelsea’s poor underlying numbers in attack, I think this could be a frustrating evening for the Blues, and Under 2.5 goals makes appeal at a decent price.

Wednesday, 20:00: RB Leipzig vs PSG

What on earth happened to RB Leipzig last week? The Germans simply capitulated at Old Trafford, eventually losing 5-0 after failing to deal with Manchester United’s counter-attacking plan (xG: MUN 3.2 – 0.5 RBL).

The Red Bulls followed that defeat up with another loss in the Bundesliga, going down 1-0 to Borussia Mönchengladbach, so they are in desperate need of a win, and will likely be seeking revenge for their Champions League semi-final humiliation last season.

Since PSG lost to Manchester United, they have been excellent. They have won all three matches across all competitions and by an aggregate of 9-0, creating a hat-full of chances. They seem to be the team in Europe that everyone loves to hate, but unfortunately for the continent, they boast some of the best attacking player that do click more often than not.

Averaging 2.5 xGF per game across all competitions, PSG will create here, but this game should suit RBL more than their visit to Manchester did, with Over 2.5 goals the way I’m playing this.

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Wednesday, 20:00: Sevilla vs Krasnodar

Sevilla have looked solid through two Champions League games this season, as they are yet to concede while picking up four points. Julen Lopetegui’s side have allowed just 0.5 xGA per game across those two matches, so really are a stubborn defensive unit, being exceptionally well-drilled.

Krasnodar were on the wrong end of a 4-0 scoreline last week, but as mentioned already, Chelsea’s win was inflated due to two penalties and three goals after the 75th minute. The game was tighter than the result suggested, and they can be competitive again here after already drawing with Rennes on their travels in this competition.

Sevilla are an excellent defensive team, but do sometimes lack some guile in attack, so I can see another narrow home win in this competition, with Under 2.5 goals my idea of value.

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Champions League Over/Under acca

Tuesday, 20:00: Real Madrid vs Inter Milan – Over 2.5 goals
Wednesday, 20:00: Chelsea vs Rennes – Under 2.5 goals
Wednesday, 20:00: RB Leipzig vs PSG – Over 2.5 goals
Wednesday, 20:00: Sevilla vs Krasnodar – Under 2.5 goals

  • A Paddy Power acca of the above 4 bets clocks in at around 10/1

All odds correct at time of first publishing but may change. Prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget.

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