Home advantage appears to count for less and less in the absence of fans and Leicester could take further advantage of that on Monday night. The Foxes have won every away game they have played this season and have been part of a wider trend that has seen away teams win with increasing regularity in the Premier League. Some teams, Leicester included, have struggled without a home crowd backing them, with home stadiums effectively reduced to neutral venues. It could work against Leeds on Monday night.
Leeds, like most Premier League clubs, have been worse at Elland Road than they have been on their travels and were outthought in their last home outing. Wolves suffocated Leeds and restricted them to very few opportunities in that 1-0 win, and Leicester may do something similar by building on their performance at Arsenal.
Goals in the Premier League have dried up somewhat after an absolutely bonkers start to the season and we could finally see something of a return to normality. Both Leeds and Leicester enjoyed frankly ridiculous starts to the season in terms of the amount of goals in each of their early games, but now seem to have found a semblance of normality.
There were 14 goals in Leeds’ opening two games; there have been seven goals in their four games since then, including two 1-0s. Leicester were arguably even more goal-hungry early on and their opening three games saw 16 goals.
However, their last three games have seen just five goals, also including two 1-0s. Leicester were defensively solid in their 1-0 win at the Emirates last week, while Leeds looked toothless in their 1-0 home defeat to Wolves in their last fixture at Elland Road. We could see a similarly low-scoring encounter on Monday night.
It may seem somewhat obvious to plumb for Vardy to score on Monday, but the Leicester striker isn’t showing any signs of slowing down and looks to be entering a goalscoring streak. Vardy was sprung from the bench in Leicester’s win at Arsenal and provided the winner with ten minutes remaining and has since dispatched a Europa League penalty.
Penalties have been the story of Vardy’s season so far. The Leicester striker has already scored four league goals from the spot, scoring two spot kicks against both West Brom and Man City in away wins. He is obviously prolific from open play as well, but Leicester’s propensity to win penalty kicks in the early stages of the season only increase the likelihood that he’ll score on Monday night.
Like Leicester, Vardy has saved his best form for away games, scoring all six of his league goals this season on the road. There is an excellent chance that he’ll make that seven on Monday.
Since failing to win a single corner in their opening day defeat to Liverpool, Leeds have been winning corners with increasing regularity. They have won 32 corners in the five games since that defeat and have won their most corners in home games that they have failed to win, taking eight corners in their home defeat to Wolves and seven in their draw with Man City.
It could be a similar story against Leicester if Brendan Rodgers’ side manage to mimic Wolves and frustrate Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds. If Leicester do take an early lead, or manage to keep it scoreless for long stages, Leeds will grow increasingly desperate and that should lead to yet another high corner count.
The Foxes, meanwhile, have won 35 corners in six games and should win enough on Monday to ensure that there are more than 10 corners in the game, although 15 of Leicester’s corners did come in one game against Burnley. However, they still hold a record of four corners a game when that outlier is omitted and should still win enough corners.
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