Football tips: Madrid the Real deal in our 14/1 Champions League Tuesday treble

Our value play from across the continent.

Karim Benzema Real Madrid Antonio Conte Atletico Madrid Romelu Lukaku Inter Milan

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We’re already into our second week of the Champions League and we’re taking a look at some of the best upcoming action. We’ve combed through the statistical trends and found some decent value in the markets for a very tasty Tuesday treble, so let’s see what’s on offer.

5.55pm: Shakhtar Donetsk v Inter – Over 3.5 Goals

Last week Shakhtar pulled off one of the shocks of the round by going to Real Madrid’s backyard and giving them a lesson in attacking football. Indeed, they were so good and Real so bad that they found themselves 0-3 up by half-time.

Inter had to come from behind against Borussia Monchengladbach to salvage a late draw but they put two past Genoa away from home at the weekend and kept a clean sheet as well.

Shakhtar have been in pretty good scoring form of late. They’ve scored 16 and conceded eight over their seven league matches and over their last five in all competitions they have scored 13, conceding six. Inter too have started their season in good scoring form, scoring 13 over their five league matches, conceding eight. Over their five most recent in all competitions they’ve scored 11, conceding seven.

Over 3.5 Goals has occurred in three out of five recent Shakhtar matches and in two out of five for Inter as well. After failing to win last week Inter could really do with the three points here as they face a double-header against Real Madrid in November. We think we’re looking at goals here and with good stats behind both teams there’s some decent value to be had in backing Over 3.5 Goals.

Antonio Conte Inter Milan Benevento Serie A September 30, 2020

8pm: Atletico Madrid v RB Salzburg – Both Teams to Score: No

Now, we know what you’re thinking here – ‘is this lad off his rocker?’ Well, it’s value we’re looking for and the price here is just a little too good to turn our noses up at. Atletico Madrid have one of best clean sheet records in Europe, they’ve conceded just one goal from their three home La Liga matches this season and last season they conceded just 0.58 goals per home league match – the season prior it was 0.53.

Over their nine most recent home Champions League matches they’ve only conceded on two occasions. Now you see why there’s some value here.

Of course, it must be said that this Salzburg side is usually full of goals but coming up against teams like Hartberg and Rheindorf Altach (even though the latter is a pretty kickass name) just doesn’t compare against the likes of Atletico and if there’s any team in Europe than can keep Salzburg scoreless, it’s Diego Simeone’s men.

Looking at previous seasons in the Champions League, both Liverpool and Crvena Zvezda have kept Salzburg scoreless too. Both those teams had similarly stalwart defences like Atletico and we can really see the Spanish outfit frustrating the young Bulls here so we’re going with BTTS: No.

8pm: Borussia Monchengladbach v Real Madrid – Both Teams to Score & Real to Win

Monchengladbach have lost just one of their matches so far this season – a 3-0 defeat away to Borussia Dortmund on the opening day of the Bundesliga. Since then they’ve drawn three and won two, scoring 10 and conceding seven (10 if we’re counting the Dortmund match).

Real are in proper yo-yo form. Everyone and his dog had written them off prior to the first El Clasico of the season at the weekend and then they go and pull off a 3-1 win. Before that match they’d lost 1-0 at their temporary home, the Alfredo Di Stefano Stadium at their training ground, to Cadiz and were 3-2 losers to Shakhtar Donetsk there as well.

But their away form has been impressive – since losing 2-1 to Man City in last season’s Champions League closing stages, Real have won three and drawn one of their four matches. For all of ‘Glaldbach’s strong start to the season it must be mentioned that they’re yet to win a home match this season, but their scoring record is mighty.

They’ve now gone 18 matches in a row at home where they’ve scored at least one. We think they’ll get one here but Real’s away record and their recent upturn in form and experience at this level should see them taking all three points. We’re backing Both Teams to Score and Real to Win.

Sergio Ramos Real Madrid Real Betis, September 26, 2020

  • All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget. In-copy odds correct at time of publication but may change.

Champions League bet summary – Tuesday, October 27

Shakhtar Donetsk v Inter (5.55pm) – Over 3.5 Goals
Atletico Madrid v RB Salzburg (8.00pm) – Both Teams to Score: No
Borussia Monchengladbach v Real Madrid (8.00pm) – Both Teams to Score & Real to Win

  • All three of these picks in a Paddy Power treble will give you odds of around 14/1.

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